After decades of unsatisfying performances, economic growth took off in many sub-Saharan states at the beginning of the 21st century. More recently, however, the end of the commodity cycle – particularly with the oil price drop – and the rise of jihadist violence rocked the “Emerging Africa” boat. Is this the beginning of the end for sustained growth in the region?
This Report investigates the economic impact of these new challenges upon Africa’s frontier markets. It shows that the positive economic trajectory of recent years is being negatively affected, particularly for oil-exporting countries. However, while more caution is needed, Africa’s growth prospects on the whole remain fairly good – at least for now.
But there is an increasing need to understand the specific risks that individual countries face and the opportunities that they offer, as well as to re-assess the potential of each specific sector of economic activity. The three largest economies in the region – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – are all under pressure. Others, including Ethiopia, Mozambique and Kenya, are still projected to achieve remarkable growth rates.
Giovanni Carbone, Ph.D. ISPI Senior Associate Research Fellow, Head of the Africa Programme, and Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Milan.