ISPI Energy Watch

The Oil Price Puzzle. No direction home
26 Aprile 2015

by ISPI Energy Watch - Some time ago we discussed whether US independents could become the new “swing producers”. It does not seem so. Or maybe it is going to happen. April figures and new information leave us in the middle of nowhere, as no piece of the puzzle seems to fit into the other.
EIA and IEA have each revised upwards their 2015 oil demand forecast (respectively to 1 and 1.1 million bbl/day). This should be good news in terms of market rebalancing; and it heralds a potential for price increase. Except that oversupply keeps raiding on top of the increase in demand and stays around 1.7 million bbl/day. Forecasts suggest that it should lower in the second half of the year; but all or almost all forecasts confirm that oversupply is here to stay, and so at least for the whole of 2015.

Forecasting energy (3): oil consumption and prices in Italy
24 Aprile 2015

by Matteo Villa - Having reached the third monthly instalment of our forecasting exercise of energy quantities in Italy, we continue to improve on our monthly forecasts.

Mendl’s patisserie and the Country of Nimby
20 Aprile 2015

by ISPI Energy Watch - The current market situation is disappointing for all players in the power generation industry, whether they rely upon conventional or renewable sources, be they subsidized or unsubsidized.
Despite poor market performance, however, some actors can still strike a profit in the electricity industry. Consider the role that RAB – Regulatory Asset Base – plays in regulated business. When a business is regulated, it is not so easy to attract private investment, all the more so when the deal involves assets with a very long life cycle, which require huge investments. Over the past couple of decades, we have observed a wide variety of RAB models, which have been instrumental in attracting significant amounts of capital and channel it towards infrastructural projects.

From Russia with energy - 2015/11
17 Aprile 2015

by Diana Shendrikova - From Russia with energy is a weekly column of ISPI Energy Watch, aimed at bringing about the latest issues of Russia’s Energy Policy and at acquainting readers of the latest development in Russia’s economy and politics in response to the low oil prices and global geopolitical issues by analyzing the latest research on the topic and debate in the national media.

Renewables-gas parity
12 Aprile 2015

by ISPI Energy Watch - GSE recently released 2014 data on costs and subsidies. The “cost” of renewables gross of incentives was quoted by GSE at € 15.8 billion in 2014; cost of incentives alone stood at € 13.4 billion. The lion’s share went – as expected – to PV, which took over 42% of the pie at a cost, of € 30.7 cents per kWh. The good (?) news should be that, thanks to subsidies, PV has reached approximately a 7.5% share of Italian power consumption and an 8.7% share of domestic power production. It could be mixing oranges with apples, but it is striking to note that in 2014 Italy’s overall natural gas imports priced at € 14.8 billion, i.e. that we spent less for gas imports than we did for “feeding in” renewables.

From Russia with energy - 2015/10
10 Aprile 2015

by Diana Shendrikova - From Russia with energy is a weekly column of ISPI Energy Watch, aimed at bringing about the latest issues of Russia’s Energy Policy and at acquainting readers of the latest development in Russia’s economy and politics in response to the low oil prices and global geopolitical issues by analyzing the latest research on the topic and debate in the national media.

After the (g)old rush
08 Aprile 2015

by Carlo Durante - With around 50GW of installed renewable energy capacity, Italy is one of the core RES (Renewable Energy Sources) countries across the EU with Germany and Spain, now followed closely by the UK and France. In Italy RES went through boom and bust in the past decade, mainly due to the “green bubble” cycle, which attracted new investors. The current situation shows a slower investment pace than in the past due to: a) lower incentives, electricity prices, financial leverage; b) a fragmented asset base; c) disappointed investors due to uncertain and lower than expected returns.

When energy trading becomes finance
02 Aprile 2015

by Francesca Morra and Lorenzo Parola - The new regulatory framework arising from the combined provisions of EMIR, MiFID II and MiFIR, aimed to make financial markets more efficient, resilient and transparent and to strengthen the protection of investors, significantly widens the panoply of obligations that apply to energy commodities derivatives and to energy traders.

Subsidise this! How not to fix the Italian (and EU) biofuels sector
28 Marzo 2015

by ISPI Energy Watch - The biofuels sector in Italy is in a sorry state, and it is partly the government’s fault. This time, however, finger-pointing is not as easy as it may appear at first: more than anything else, we think it might be a matter of diplomatic weakness, coupled with a lack of awareness of other EU Member States’ legislation.

From Russia with energy - 2015/9
25 Marzo 2015

by Diana Shendrikova - From Russia with energy is a weekly column of ISPI Energy Watch, aimed at bringing about the latest issues of Russia’s Energy Policy and at acquainting readers of the latest development in Russia’s economy and politics in response to the low oil prices and global geopolitical issues by analyzing the latest research on the topic and debate in the national media.

RES subsidies in Italy: enough and more than enough
22 Marzo 2015

by ISPI Energy Watch - Italy is usually depicted as a laggard that shows significant delays in achieving policy targets set at the European level. However, such representation does not hold true, at least as far as renewable energy sources are concerned. According to Directive 2009/28/EC, Italy shall obtain at least 17% of its gross final consumption of energy from renewable sources like sun, wind or biomasses by 2020.

Forecasting energy (2): oil consumption and prices in Italy
19 Marzo 2015

by Matteo Villa - Last month we kicked off our monthly forecasting exercise of energy quantities in Italy, and decided to initially limit our analysis to oil and oil-related consumption. Time is now ripe to assess how our first attempt at forecasting fared with respect to actual data: it turns out we did pretty well.

The Italian retail electricity and natural gas markets: a slow march
18 Marzo 2015

by Antonio Sileo - Gas customers should be able to choose their supplier freely. Nonetheless, a phased approach for the completion of the internal market for gas should be preferred, once a specific deadline has been set. This would allow the industry to adjust its supply and demand patterns, and would ensure that adequate measures and systems are in place to protect the interests of customers and the actual right to choose their suppliers.

I’m smart because you’re stupid
13 Marzo 2015

by Carlo Durante - Around 7% of the total electricity demand in Italy was not served by utilities in 2014: a huge market share escaping normal channels that frightens the Italian Electricity Authority (AEEGSI), which amounts to around 22TWh. What is hidden behind the statistics is a world of 6 to 7GW of almost unknown installed capacity.

From Russia with energy - 2015/8
12 Marzo 2015

by Diana Shendrikova - From Russia with energy is a weekly column of ISPI Energy Watch, aimed at bringing about the latest issues of Russia’s Energy Policy and at acquainting readers of the latest development in Russia’s economy and politics in response to the low oil prices and global geopolitical issues by analyzing the latest research on the topic and debate in the national media.

Does a new social revolution start from the kitchen?
09 Marzo 2015

by Simona Benedettini- Are dishwashers an indicator for women emancipation? According to a recent report of the Italian Institute of Statistics (ISTAT, henceforth) (Energy Consumption of Families), published last December, the answer should be ‘yes’.

European energy supply: the weaker, the stronger?
06 Marzo 2015

by ISPI Energy Watch - Glimpses of hybris appear to emerge in the European energy policy and the debate surrounding it. Or, at least, evidence of a new assertiveness. Once upon a time, it was just fear of supply insecurity. Ten years ago it would have been unthinkable, or at least scary, to face a disruption from any of our significant energy suppliers.

Don’t leave it to the physicians
27 Febbraio 2015

by ISPI Energy Watch - On December 17, 2014, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced a ban to fracking in New York State. In itself, the decision will have almost no material impact on the industry development, as it just prevents operations on a minor edge of the Marcellus shale. The 2005 Energy Policy Act exempted certain fracking-related activities from the federal standards of the Safe Drinking Act and of the Clean Water Act respectively, leaving to each State to set its own; and since then the stringency of the standards has often been inversely proportional to the enacting State’s shale potential. This time, it is voiced, it could be different. The decision could be the first of a series, and potentially initiate a rally against fracking elsewhere in the US.

From Russia with energy - 2015/7
26 Febbraio 2015

by Diana Shendrikova - From Russia with energy is a weekly column of ISPI Energy Watch, aimed at bringing about the latest issues of Russia’s Energy Policy and at acquainting readers of the latest development in Russia’s economy and politics in response to the low oil prices and global geopolitical issues by analyzing the latest research on the topic and debate in the national media.

Forecasting energy (1): oil consumption and prices in Italy
25 Febbraio 2015

by Matteo Villa - Today we kick off our monthly column devoted to forecasting energy quantities. We are sure not alone in this endeavour: international organizations, government agencies, private consultancies, and a host of scholars already produce a treasure trove of forecasted quantities. We do not contend to be special, but we believe our contribution can be valuable, especially to anyone in search of energy forecasts concerning the Italian energy system.

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