Reports

  • After Mosul. Re-inventing Iraq

    Giovedì, 22 Giugno, 2017

    After 8 months of heavy fighting, it seems that Mosul is next to be liberated. However, this would not mark the complete defeat of IS in Iraq, nor would it signal the end of the crises affecting the country.

    What will be the fate of the city and the other liberated territories? Could a victory over a common enemy re-ignite competition among Iraq’s various ethno-sectarian communities? And could this prompt further demands for autonomy by the Kurds, who played a central role in fighting IS? What are the interests and agendas of the main regional and international players for the future of the country?

    To put all these questions into perspective, ISPI has just published the Report “After Mosul: Re-inventing Iraq,” edited by Andrea Plebani. The volume sketches out possible answers through a multi-pronged approach, bringing to light the complexity of the Iraqi scenario and the influence exerted by a broad array of actors.

  • Jihadista della porta accanto. Radicalizzazione e attacchi jihadisti in Occidente

    Mercoledì, 21 Giugno, 2017

    Lorenzo Vidino

    Francesco Marone, Eva Entenmann

    Negli ultimi tre anni l’Europa e il Nord America sono state colpite da un’ondata senza precedenti di attacchi terroristici, eseguiti da individui ispirati dall’ideologia jihadista. Chi sono gli autori di questi attentati? Sono nati e cresciuti in Occidente o sono rifugiati e migranti? Come si sono radicalizzati? Erano ben istruiti e integrati o, al contrario, vivevano ai margini della società? Hanno agito da soli? Quali erano le loro connessioni con lo Stato Islamico?

    Rispondere a questi e altri interrogativi è utile per comprendere la natura e la portata della minaccia e per riuscire a individuare soluzioni politiche adeguate, basate sull’evidenza empirica. Lo studio – il primo di questo tipo – mira ad analizzare il profilo demografico, le traiettorie di radicalizzazione e i legami con lo Stato Islamico degli individui che hanno compiuto attacchi di matrice jihadista in Europa e Nord America dalla proclamazione del sedicente Califfato nel giugno del 2014. 

  • Fear Thy Neighbor. Radicalization and Jihadist Attacks in the West

    Martedì, 13 Giugno, 2017

    Lorenzo Vidino

    Francesco Marone, Eva Entenmann

    Over the last three years Europe and North America have been hit by an unprecedented wave of terrorist attacks perpetrated by individuals motivated by jihadist ideology. Who are the individuals who have carried out these attacks? Were they born and raised in the West? Or were they an “imported threat”,

    refugees and migrants? How did they radicalize? Were they well educated and integrated, or social outcasts? Did they act alone? What were their connections to the Islamic State?

    The answers to these and other questions have large implications for our understanding of the threat facing us and, consequently, help us design sounder policy solutions built on empirical evidence. This study, the first of its kind, seeks to analyze the demographic profile, radicalization trajectories and connections to the Islamic State of all the individuals who have carried out attacks

  • China’s Belt and Road: a Game Changer?

    Mercoledì, 10 Maggio, 2017

    Officially announced by president Xi Jinping in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has since become the centrepiece of China’s economic diplomacy. 
    It is a commitment to ease bottlenecks to Eurasian trade by improving and building networks of connectivity across Central and Western Asia, where the BRI aims to act as a bond for the projects of regional cooperation and integration already in progress in Southern Asia.
    But it also reaches out to the Middle East as well as East and North Africa, a truly strategic area where the Belt joins the Road. Europe, the end-point of the New Silk Roads, both by land and by sea, is the ultimate geographic destination and political partner in the Belt and Road Initiative. 
    This report, edited by Alessia Amighini, provides an in-depth analysis of the BRI, its logic, rationale and implications for international economic and political relations.

    But it also reaches out to the Middle East as well as East and North Africa, a truly strategic area where the Belt joins the Road. Europe, the end-point of the New Silk Roads, both by land and by sea, is the ultimate geographic destination and political partner in the Belt and Road Initiative.
    This report provides an in-depth analysis of the BRI, its logic, rationale and implications for international economic and political relations.

  • The Age of Uncertainty. Global Scenarios and Italy

    Giovedì, 9 Marzo, 2017

    Last year’s events further exacerbated and focused global attention on the same uncertainties already weighing on the past decade: from Brexit, and the ensuing uncertainty about the future of the UK-EU relations, to the ever-growing success of populist and nationalist movements across Europe; from the unnerving paralysis of the international community on the war in Syria to the new wave of terrorist attacks in Europe; from renewed political and economic crises in pivot countries such as Brazil, South Africa, Egypt and Turkey to Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections, which may turn out to be a new and momentous source of uncertainty, also casting doubts on the remaining resilience of multilateral cooperation.

    The 2017 ISPI report aims to analyze how such uncertainties are spreading from last year’s events, but also to try to fathom deeper trends. The first part of the Report will focus on the overall development of the international scenario, both from a political and an economic standpoint. The second part will shift the spotlight to Italy, where global uncertainties overlap with deep internal uncertainties and vulnerabilities.

     

  • L'età dell'incertezza. Scenari globali e l'Italia

    Giovedì, 9 Marzo, 2017

    Gli eventi dell’ultimo anno hanno aggravato e posto definitivamente al centro dell’attenzione l’incertezza che aveva già pesato su tutto l’ultimo decennio: dalla vittoria della Brexit, con la conseguente incertezza sul futuro dei rapporti tra Regno Unito e UE, ai nuovi successi dei movimenti nazionalisti e populisti in vari paesi europei; dalla sconcertante paralisi della comunità internazionale di fronte alla guerra in Siria, alla nuova ondata di attacchi terroristici in Europa; dalle nuove crisi politiche ed economiche in paesi chiave nelle rispettive regioni quali Brasile, Sudafrica, Egitto e Turchia, fino alla vittoria di Donald Trump alle elezioni presidenziali negli Stati Uniti. Una vittoria che è destinata ad alimentare nuove e imponenti incertezze nei rapporti tra Stati Uniti ed Europa, oltre che nella residua tenuta del contesto multilaterale e negli equilibri economici internazionali.
    Il Rapporto ISPI 2017 affronta il tema della diffusione di tale incertezza, partendo dagli sviluppi dell’ultimo anno, ma cercando di cogliere alcune linee di tendenza più profonde. La prima parte del volume è dedicata all’evoluzione complessiva dello scenario internazionale, sia nella sua dimensione politica che in quella economica. Nella seconda parte l’orizzonte si restringe sull’Italia, dove le incertezze internazionali si mischiano al permanere di profonde incertezze e vulnerabilità interne.

     

    Il Rapporto Ispi 2017 si propone di analizzare  la diffusione di tale incertezza, partendo dall’evoluzione dell’ultimo anno, ma cercando di cogliere alcune linee di tendenza più profonde. La prima parte del volume è dedicata agli sviluppi complessivi dello scenario internazionale, nella  sua dimensione politica e in quella economica. Nella seconda parte l’orizzonte si restringe sull’Italia, dove le incertezze internazionali si mischiano al permanere di profonde incertezze e vulnerabilità interne.

     

  • Latin America at a Crossroads

    Mercoledì, 1 Febbraio, 2017

    Latin America is at a crossroads. The “golden age” inaugurated with the turn of the new millennium seems a faint memory. Economies that had grown at a steady pace are now slowing down, while some are in freefall. Politically, the “pink tide” of populist movements is now ebbing. From Brazil to Venezuela, from Argentina to Bolivia, left-leaning leaders across the region seem to have lost their bond with the people. Their promises of an equitable society through an apparently never-ending redistribution of wealth crashed against the reality of shortsighted and unsustainable policies. Political and social turmoil are heralding an era of changes and – maybe – of new opportunities for Latin America. And this ‘great transformation’ is precisely what this volume is all about. Where is it leading to? Does it mark the beginning of a new age? Which lessons can be learnt from the past? Leading international scholars and experts scratch beneath the surface of Latin America’s current crisis to have a clearer glimpse of what the future holds and draw policy recommendations, especially for the EU. 

  • Il mondo secondo Trump

    Giovedì, 12 Gennaio, 2017

    L’elezione di Donald Trump alla presidenza degli Stati Uniti sembra aver colto di sorpresa studiosi e osservatori: per la prima volta dalla fine della Seconda guerra mondiale, a vincere le elezioni è un candidato che declina il suo messaggio facendo leva su populismo, nazionalismo e isolazionismo. In un contesto internazionale di globalizzazione e interdipendenza, l’eventuale ripiegamento su se stessi degli Stati Uniti rischia di aprire prospettive inedite, tanto sul piano politico quanto su quello economico-commerciale.

    Cosa ci aspetta? Che ne sarà dell’eredità di Obama in settori quali la sanità, i diritti civili, la politica economica? Quale l’impatto sulle relazioni tra Stati Uniti, Europa e Russia? Come si muoveranno gli USA nel complicato puzzle mediorientale, tra Siria, Israele, Arabia Saudita e Iran? Dopo le dure dichiarazioni fatte in campagna elettorale nei confronti della Cina e la promessa di costruire un muro al confine con il Messico, cosa succederà in Asia e in America Latina? Infine, cosa ne sarà dei trattati commerciali o dello storico accordo sul clima di Parigi?

    Le analisi contenute nel presente volume si propongono di rispondere a questi interrogativi, delineando i possibili scenari sull’evoluzione della leadership americana nel mondo e sulle conseguenti implicazioni per i più importanti contesti geopolitici.

  • Beyond Trump. Populism on the Rise

    Martedì, 20 Dicembre, 2016

    Recent political events – from Trump’s election to the outcome of the Brexit Referendum - have somehow caught the world by surprise, and are contributing to a growing sense of concern or even alarm about the future of the Western world and, particularly, Western democracies as we know them.

    When looking at the political landscape in Europe, populism looks like an unprecedented game-changer. Populists parties are in power in Poland and Hungary, they are in the coalition governments in Switzerland and Finland, top the polls in France and the Netherlands, and their support is at record highs in Sweden. Not to mention the recent rise of Alternative für Deutschland in Germany and the successful story of Syriza, Podemos and of the Five Stars Movement in Southern Europe.

    The volume explores the rise of populism in Europe and the US by analyzing its root causes and the rationale behind its success. It also draws some policy recommendations to tackle the populist challenge. 

  • Leaving the Storm Behind: Ideas for a New Mediterranean - MED Report

    Giovedì, 1 Dicembre, 2016

    The Mediterranean is not only an area of conflict and crisis, but also a space for momentous opportunities. Overcoming pessimism and developing a positive agenda for the region is the ultimate goal of Rome MED 2016, the conference organized from 1 to 3 December by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and ISPI. On this occasion, ISPI published the MED Report to build upon the four pillars of the conference (shared prosperity, shared security, migration, and culture & civil society) and provide a useful tool to stimulate debate during Rome MED and beyond.

    The Report is meant to launch new ideas to “leave the storm behind” and design a positive agenda for the future building on experts’ insights and policy suggestions. The volume is enriched by infographics and maps depicting the main regional trends. The goal of the Report is not to delve exhaustively into all the questions and the issues that concern the region and on which its future depends, but to provide in-depth insights and to formulate concrete proposals.

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