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oil

Oil in Oman. Labour tensions and political paralysis.

Submitted by ISPI on Sat, 19/12/2015 - 16:42

by Michele Delera - Omani crude is currently trading at below $40 per barrel. Drilling activity in the country has hardly been affected. Crude and condensates production hit record levels recently, with 1mm b/d produced for the first time in the country’s history in July. But spending in the hydrocarbon sector is increasingly under pressure. At least 1,000 Omani workers – around 5% of Omani nationals employed in oil and gas companies – have been laid off since the start of the year. More redundancies are expected in the months ahead. With over 45 percent of Oman’s population being less than 20 and the memory of the 2011-12 protests still fresh, this is a sensitive issue.

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Turn, turn, turn? Is really Big Oil turning into Big Green?

Submitted by ISPI on Tue, 01/12/2015 - 10:16

by Carlo Durante - Let’s be clear: Big Green is Big Business. Despite investments in clean energy have lowered if compared to previous years, Green still seems to be where energy investment is ultimately headed. Question is if Big Oil is anticipating the move.

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Shale oil: loser in the short term, winner in the longer

Submitted by ISPI on Mon, 16/11/2015 - 16:03

by Filippo Clô - Low oil prices are finally affecting shale production. However, the shale industry continues to show a strong resiliency and it may eventually emerge as a winner in this new lower for longer scenario.

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Venezuela’s self-inflicted crisis

Submitted by ISPI on Tue, 22/09/2015 - 00:30

by Michele Delera - On September 10, Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez was sentenced to thirteen years and nine months in prison. Arrested on grounds of inciting violence during the wave of protests that engulfed Caracas and other major cities less than a year ago, Mr Lopez is but another casualty of the executive’s often criticized interference in judicial matters. However, with President Maduro’s approval ratings lower than ever and street protests still ongoing, the sentence might be interpreted as a sign of the government’s weakness – a last-ditch attempt at intimidating the opposition ahead of December’s parliamentary elections.

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Shale oil industry: chronicle of a death foretold

Submitted by ISPI on Thu, 04/06/2015 - 09:41

by Filippo Clô - As regularly happens since oil prices started to fall in July 2014, prophesies about the imminent end of the shale oil industry continue to fill the newspapers. The most recent and resounding attack came from the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy’s predictor, David Einhorn. At the Ira Sohn investment conference in New York on May 4th, he claimed that shale oil producers rely on a trashing business model.

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The Oil Price Puzzle. No direction home

Submitted by ISPI on Sun, 26/04/2015 - 23:18

by ISPI Energy Watch - Some time ago we discussed whether US independents could become the new “swing producers”. It does not seem so. Or maybe it is going to happen. April figures and new information leave us in the middle of nowhere, as no piece of the puzzle seems to fit into the other.
EIA and IEA have each revised upwards their 2015 oil demand forecast (respectively to 1 and 1.1 million bbl/day). This should be good news in terms of market rebalancing; and it heralds a potential for price increase. Except that oversupply keeps raiding on top of the increase in demand and stays around 1.7 million bbl/day. Forecasts suggest that it should lower in the second half of the year; but all or almost all forecasts confirm that oversupply is here to stay, and so at least for the whole of 2015.

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European energy supply: the weaker, the stronger?

Submitted by ISPI on Fri, 06/03/2015 - 11:52

by ISPI Energy Watch - Glimpses of hybris appear to emerge in the European energy policy and the debate surrounding it. Or, at least, evidence of a new assertiveness. Once upon a time, it was just fear of supply insecurity. Ten years ago it would have been unthinkable, or at least scary, to face a disruption from any of our significant energy suppliers.

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The downsides of cheap oil

Submitted by ISPI on Sat, 17/01/2015 - 12:12

Oil price dropping 50% or more in a few months should be good news for the economies of consuming countries. Thus, we are flooded with the econometrics of the expected raise in national GDP; and daily presented with the goodies that cheap oil will deliver to economic growth. That we will benefit in the short term may be a fact (history will tell); and how much we will benefit we can thus leave to modelling. That there may also be downsides seems however to attract less interest and literature. And unfortunately downsides there are, and may be as bad as to overcome short-term benefits.

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The Shale Revolution and the oil slump

Submitted by ISPI on Fri, 16/01/2015 - 13:43

Massimo Nicolazzi, head of the ISPI Energy Watch, delivered today the opening lecture at the annual conference of the Centro studi di economia tecnica dell’energia Giorgio Levi Cases (University of Padua).

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