The Consequences of the End of the ISAF and More Generally of NATO's Military Engagement in Afghanistan | ISPI
Skip to main content

Search form

  • INSTITUTE
  • CLERICI PALACE
  • CONTACT US
  • MEDMED

  • login
  • EN
  • IT
Home
  • INSTITUTE
  • CLERICI PALACE
  • CONTACT US
  • MEDMED
  • Home
  • RESEARCH
    • CENTRES
    • Asia
    • Cybersecurity
    • Europe and Global Governance
    • Business Scenarios
    • Middle East and North Africa
    • Radicalization and International Terrorism
    • Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia
    • Infrastructure
    • PROGRAMMES
    • Africa
    • Energy Security
    • Global cities
    • Latin America
    • Migration
    • Religions and International Relations
    • Transatlantic Relations
  • ISPI SCHOOL
  • Publications
  • EVENTS
  • BUSINESS PROGRAM
    • about us
    • Closed-door meetings
    • Scenario Conferences
    • Members
  • EXPERTS

  • Home
  • RESEARCH
    • CENTRES
    • Asia
    • Cybersecurity
    • Europe and Global Governance
    • Business Scenarios
    • Middle East and North Africa
    • Radicalization and International Terrorism
    • Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia
    • Infrastructure
    • PROGRAMMES
    • Africa
    • Energy Security
    • Global cities
    • Latin America
    • Migration
    • Religions and International Relations
    • Transatlantic Relations
  • ISPI SCHOOL
  • Publications
  • EVENTS
  • BUSINESS PROGRAM
    • about us
    • Closed-door meetings
    • Scenario Conferences
    • Members
  • EXPERTS
Analysis
The Consequences of the End of the ISAF and More Generally of NATO's Military Engagement in Afghanistan
18 June 2014

 

Abstract

Afghanistan faces a major milestone in 2014: the withdrawal of the ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) troops by the end of the year.

ISAF’s combat troops are scheduled to leave Afghan soil, ending a 13-year war against an unbeatable insurgency.

The new NATO military mission - which will be formalized through the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) by the next president of Afghanistan (successor to Hamid Karzai) - should begin on January 2015. This is likely to have deep implications for NATO’s role in Afghanistan.

In brief:.

NATO forces remaining in Afghanistan from 2015 in order to make an enduring contribution to stability, could be about 8,000 to 12,000 advisors/trainers and counterterrorism and special forces, largely from the US; and, as declared by President Obama, the US plans to withdraw the last American troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016 when there would be only a reduced force able to protect the embassy in Kabul and to support Afghans in security work.

This transition process is marked by interconnected dynamics:

•on the one hand, a decrease in territory under the control of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) has been recorded;

•on the other, the reduction of ISAF troops led to a lack in security conditions, because of the increased operational capabilities of Armed Opposition Groups (AOG) and decreased ANSF capability (fewer direct actions against ISAF-NATO forces and an increase of attacks against the ANSF have been seen);

•finally, the Afghan state-building process has not been achieved, leaving the country without primary infrastructure for development. The Afghan government is currently powerless, unable to maintain stability within the country and economically dependent on the international community: in brief it is not far from substantial failure.

Claudio Bertolotti (PhD), Strategic Analyst and Cross-Cultural Advisor, is Senior External Researcher at Military Centre for Strategic Studies (CeMiSS)

Read more:

Clouds Loom Over the US-Japan Alliance
Jeff Kingston
Temple University Japan
Is Covid-19 Changing the US-Iran State of Deterrence?
Abdolrasool Divsallar
European University Institute
Making Democracy Work at the Time of a Pandemic
Samuele Dominioni
ISPI Research Fellow
Israel 2019: (How) Will Arab Citizens Vote?
Arik Rudnitzky
Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation and Tel Aviv University
A View from Moscow on Ukraine's Presidential Vote
Ekaterina Chimiris
Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)
A Welcome Delay: The US Withdrawal from Syria
Ranj Alaaldin
Brookings Doha Center

Tags

Afghanistam US elections president Karzai Taliban ISAF Nato
Versione stampabile
Download PDF

GET OUR UPDATES

SUBSCRIBE TO NEWSLETTER

About ISPI - Work with us - Experts - Contact - For Media - Privacy

ISPI (Italian Institute for International Political Studies) - Palazzo Clerici (Via Clerici 5 - 20121 Milan) - P.IVA IT02141980157