Recent developments in the Islamic Republic led to increased attention from a large part of the world and questions about potential scenarios that could affect the nation. Iran is a strategic country on the global stage for at two reasons. On the one hand, it’s in a geopolitical quadrant of indisputable relevance and, therefore, its policies provoke a profound effect both regionally and internationally. On the other, its political system represents the most powerful symbol of "realized" political Islamism, where theocratic regime found a sort of modern institutionalisation based on the principles of Islam.
A hypothetical regime change could provoke unpredictable and serious repercussions both on geopolitics and ideology. Transitions from an authoritarian regime are not easily predictable, even if they usually follow some general rules that have been analysed and explained by the specialized scientific literature in this field. Several factors can favour, or, vice versa, inhibit the transition from an autocracy to a democracy. One of which is represented by the specific nature of the authoritarian regime, the other by the characteristics and strength of the opposing forces.
Authoritarian regimes are not all the same. Some are one-party systems, others are military regimes, while some are monarchies. A separate category, which after the end of the Cold War became widespread, is that of the so-called hybrid regimes, which combine elements of political pluralism and elements typical of a dictatorship to varying degrees and in different ways. The Islamic Republic is one of these hybrid regimes. It is not a monolithic system, and the different factions within it also vie for power through competitions. This is showcased in presidential elections, which depend on the popular vote, even though there is a process of preselection. Empirical analysis seems to demonstrate that a transition to democracy is more probable in this type of regime. Firstly, the competition between rival factions favors the division between "softliners" and "hardliners" in an authoritarian regime, thus weakening the legitimacy of the institutions and favoring a possible side game or alliance between the "softliners” and the oppositions. Secondly, the partial pluralism of hybrid regimes, to some extent, accustoms and socializes political forces and citizens to the rules of the democratic game, albeit in contexts in which these rules are, de rule and de facto, limited and manipulated.
Even oppositions can have different characteristics. They can exhibit either a peaceful stance or a disposition to adopt aggressive actions, to the point of an armed struggle. They also differ on the basis of the structure, the organizational strength, and the degree of cohesion between its different members.
The combination of hybrid regimes and peaceful mobilizations appears to favor a successful transition to democracy. Any analysis of the current phase of the Islamic Republic must therefore start from these two elements: the evolution of the regime and characteristics of the oppositions.
The current configuration of the Islamic Republic
The Islamic Republic recently experienced a significant change in its internal balance. Prior to the eve of the last presidential elections, there was a balance between the moderate factions, which are more open to reforms, and the more conservative ones. However, the election of President Ebrahim Raisi allowed for a conservative domination leading to an authoritarian squeeze and a reduction of pluralism within the regime. This turning point could lead to a stiffening of the regime, reducing its tactical flexibility in the face of mass mobilization and simultaneously radicalizing the protests. Furthermore, a mixture of Western sanctions and the ongoing economic crisis could add fuel to the fires of revolt.
The face of the mobilization
The new wave of protests has a new face compared to the previous ones. As we know, the death in custody of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, arrested by morality police on 13 September for violating the Islamic dress code was the trigger. The veil obligation evidently has a symbolic value as it represents the founding values of the Islamic Republic. This is also a symbolic value for the protest movement, which, by targeting, creates a protest that affects the regime as a whole. Some significant developments in the current protest include its capillarity, due to its presence both in and outside of large urban centers, the large number of female protestors, who emphasize issues and rights related to gender, the radical tones of the current movement, which maintain a fundamentally peaceful stance, and the highly iconoclastic character of its symbolic repertoire.
Finally, the characteristics of the movement seem to have all the features of a generational revolution that is infecting the entire country. Unlike the "green wave" of 2009, there is no longer any confidence in the ability to reform the current system, nor are references and interlocutors sought in the moderate and reformist factions. The burning of veils in public, the rite of the religious turbans being impertinently blown away, the blatant insults against the the 1979 revolution, Ruhollah Khomeini, and many other acts of the same tenor, indicate the overcoming of many taboos. It also represents a level of courageous ruthlessness, aspects that reveal an undoubted decline in the legitimacy of the regime.
But in addition to the pars destruens, the pars construens is also interesting. In particular, displaying symbols that harken back to the ancient Persian tradition, such as the national banner (with the sun and the lion) that characterized the Shah's Pahlavi Monarchy or the reference to the glories and conquests of Cyrus the great.
However, this new wave of protest will have to face at least two challenges. On the one hand, it should adopt a minimum organizational structure that guarantees its continuity; on the other, it should have an articulate political project. In fact, the fight against the regime would be more effective if it did not rely only on "field clashes" (such as large mass demonstrations), but also on regular additional work based on attrition micro-initiatives carried out in the various fields of social life. They are indispensable qualities, among other things, to find allies among those components less compromised by the brutality of the regime, such as the national armed forces.
The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect ISPI's position.
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