Report 2017. The Age of Uncertainty. Global Scenarios and Italy

Last year’s events further exacerbated and focused global attention on the same uncertainties already weighing on the past decade: from Brexit, and the ensuing uncertainty about the future of the UK-EU relations, to the ever-growing success of populist and nationalist movements across Europe; from the unnerving paralysis of the international community on the war in Syria to the new wave of terrorist attacks in Europe; from renewed political and economic crises in pivot countries such as Brazil, South Africa, Egypt and Turkey to Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections, which may turn out to be a new and momentous source of uncertainty, also casting doubts on the remaining resilience of multilateral cooperation.

The 2017 ISPI report aims to analyze how such uncertainties are spreading from last year’s events, but also to try to fathom deeper trends. The first part of the Report will focus on the overall development of the international scenario, both from a political and an economic standpoint. The second part will shift the spotlight to Italy, where global uncertainties overlap with deep internal uncertainties and vulnerabilities.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

1. A Crisis in Legitimacy: The US and World Order, Alessandro Colombo

2. Brexit and Europe's Political Future, Beda Romano

3. A Crisis within Representative Democracy, Alberto Martinelli

4. Uncertainties and Inequalities: Political Risks, Maurizio Ferrera

5. Syria and Libya: Neverending Crises, Armando Sanguini

6. The Shifting Jihadist Galaxy, Andrea Plebani

7. 2016 Global Economy: "Creative Destruction" or "Destructive Creation", Mario Deaglio

8. BRICS and Emerging Countries: An Uncertain Path, Alessandro Pio

9. The Foreign Policy of the Renzi Government (Year III), Ugo Tramballi

10. Italy: A Downsized Engine, Mario Deaglio