At the so-called “African COP” in Sharm el-Sheyk, the debate on energy transition and climate change adaptation in Africa is expected to be a key part of the discussion. Constraints in access, climate pressures, and management of fossil fuel resources are more pressing issues than ever for the continent. But the trade-off between the exploitation of polluting resources and climate change mitigation calls attention to a necessary reflection on common priorities and accountability at the global level. In Africa, under the impetus of extreme weather events and the economic shocks of the past two years, the ambivalence between such priorities is manifesting itself more than ever: on the eve of COP27 African leaders have to advocate for the best way to address the continent's development needs.
Thirst for energy
Africa has historically had significant limitations in energy supply. Major differences between countries notwithstanding, out of a population of 1.3 billion people, 43% (more than 600 million people) live without access to electricity. Of these, 80% live in rural areas. Energy access had been improving in recent years, but the pandemic caused a slowdown in light of the logistical (with measures to restrict social contacts), economic, and financial constraints it imposed. The increase of extreme poverty triggered by the pandemic added to the mix, preventing many consumers from being able to afford the cost of electricity. Between 2019 and 2021, the number of people without access to electricity increased by 4%.
Infrastructure shortcomings play a crucial role in supply constraints: limited coverage in the continent's interior areas, maintenance shortfalls, and lack of investment contribute to a picture of high costs and low returns in energy infrastructure, a problem in turn exacerbated by the uncertain economic scenario over the past two years, during which greater unpredictability on the demand side has made large companies more cautious about making investments in the sector.
The gap in access is likely to be exacerbated by a rising demographic trend, which is not matched by an equally rapid expansion of connectivity, and with economic growth, which, in spite of a recent slowdown remains positive: according to the International Energy Agency (IEA),electricity demand is set to increase by 75% by 2030.
Coveted resources
Yet, Africa can count on a large pool of resources. First and foremost, in the renewables sector: driven by solar power (but also wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal), and fostered by the momentum of energy transition internationally, this sector, if supported with sufficient investment, gives the continent the potential to leapfrog toward a renewables-focused future. The hydrogen sector, currently still in its early stages, may also play an important role in some countries, with Morocco and Namibia emerging as particularly promising candidates.
However, gas and oil are still a crucial slice in sustaining African countries' energy demand. The gas sector in particular seems to have a promising time ahead, especially in light of a number of recent discoveries that have already triggered a 20% increase in production in the past decade, with a prospect for further increase, and initiated projects for the extraction of liquid natural gas (LNG). The 5 trillion billion cubic metres (bcm) discovered so far could provide a significant boost to the African economy in the short term, especially considering high gas prices, which have been on the rise since 2021 and have seen soaring peaks in the past year. Also boosting investment in the sector is a renewed interest from European countries, now engaged in a quest to diversify their energy sources to break free from dependence on Russian gas. The goal set in the REPowerEU plan of the European Commission is to reduce dependence on Russian gas to zero by 2023. In this quest, European countries are also looking south from the Mediterranean: in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a flurry of diplomatic activity has sparked agreements to increase supplies or start new collaborations with African countries rich in fossil fuels.
Lights and shadows of energy diversification
Italy is a case in point: as Europe's second largest importer of Russian gas, its diplomacy has moved promptly since late February. Rome has made agreements with Algiers to increase gas imports by 9 bcm annually by 2023-24, and with Egypt for LNG imports of up to 3 bcm. Additionally, Angola and the Republic of Congo, are expected to bring in 1.5 bcm and 5 bcm, respectively. In Mozambique, the Coral South maritime platform, operated by ENI, has come online, with the first cargo to Europe expected to depart in the coming weeks.
Other EU countries have done the same, and other African countries that are already exporters or have recently discovered deposits are engaged in similar discussions. The work-in-progress Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project off Senegal and Mauritania could also bring additional gas to the EU. In Nigeria, the project of the Trans-Saharan Pipeline– which would bring Nigerian gas via Niger to Algeria and from there to Europe – has taken on new life, although cost and safety conditions cast doubt on its feasibility. Similarly, there has been renewed interest in a natural gas pipeline connecting Tanzania and Uganda.
European interest, in combination with rising gas prices, can yield large revenues for these countries, much needed for sustaining the impact that the war in Ukraine, and before that, rising inflation and Covid-19 have brought on their economies. However, an investment projected primarily for export raises doubts about its long-term potential, especially considering the energy transition goals set by the EU for the medium and long term. It is therefore crucial that these resources are developed while sustaining domestic demand and supporting universal access to energy, and not just be projected for export to buyers who may only be interested in the short term.
The EU is now set to invest in gas to manage the crisis in the short term, while maintaining the priority of renewables development in the medium and long term. However, a shift in prioritieshas earned Europe accusations of hypocrisy and double standards. International financial institutions have pulled the brakes on funding gas exploitation projects, while at COP26 a group of 20 countries led by the US, Canada and EU voted not to fund projects to exploit fossil fuels abroad that are "unabated" (i.e., not accompanied by CO2-absorbing technologies). A policy that appears in stark contrast with Europe’s “flexible” approach to its gas needs.
Climate adaptation and just transition: trade off, or win win?
The position of European countries to invest in gas in the short term has raised more than one eyebrow in Africa. Even more so as in recent years mutual trust has cracked on several occasions, from the perceived lack of solidarity during the recovery from the pandemic, with the slow pace of vaccine distribution, and then with the different pace of reaction to the Ukraine crisis, compared to other pressing emergencies around the world. In short, there is little confidence that Africa's well-being is at the top of the agenda, when it comes to climate and development either.
It is well known that Africa contributes less than 4% to global emissions, suffering disproportionately from the consequences of climate change. According to the African Development Bank, Africa is losing to the effects of climate change between 5% to peaks of 15% of its GDP. The practical consequences are already evident in extreme weather events, from record-breaking droughts in the Horn of Africa to Nigeria's recent floods, that in turn trigger a vicious cycle of detour of resources to emergency mitigation and increase extreme poverty, further distancing energy development goals.
In short, many African countries are caught between two fires. With the consequences of climate change dramatically evident, and the failure to meet the $100 billion in climate finance promised by 2020, climate change mitigation and adaptation goals are most urgent.
However, many argue that Africa should have the right to exploit its natural gas resources. According to an IEA estimate, if African countries were to exploit all the gas available to them, their emissions would increase by only 0.5%: a drop in the ocean, whose negative effects would be more than balanced by the positive outcomes.
In the need to arrive at Sharm el-Sheyk with a united position, African leaders have to balance the need to mitigate the climate emergency that threatens its systems environmentally and socially with the benefits of a boost toward a meaningful energy transition.
Universal goal, different path
In the face of these ambivalent priorities, the African Union (AU) carries forward a position that, while confirming its commitment to the Paris Agreement and its green transition priorities, frames the continent’s energy priorities in light of its development needs. At the United Nations General Assembly in September, the Chairperson of the AU Macky Sall, stated that "it is legitimate, fair and equitable that Africa, the continent that pollutes the least and lags furthest behind in the industrialisation process, should exploit its available resources to provide basic energy, improve the competitiveness of its economy and achieve universal access to electricity”. A position expressed in the African Common Position on Energy Access and Just Energy Transition of July, which envisions making use of all types of energy available to African countries, renewable and non-renewable, to meet the need to expand demand in the short and medium term, before turning toward green priorities in the medium and long term by focusing on renewables.
The African perspective thus proposes a pragmatic approach to two conflicting priorities, with timelines tailored to the continent's needs, capitalising on the international context, in what, in the words of African Union Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy H. E. Amani Abou-Zedin is "Africa's right for a differentiated path toward the goal of universal access to energy."
The discussions at COP27 will show how compatible these needs are with the global context and the ability of stakeholders to find a common approach to a differentiated path.
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