L'export proficuo di commodities non eviterà una severa recessione a Mosca. Mentre i problemi strutturali del Paese rischiano di aggravarsi.
The Russian economy is facing its biggest recession since at least the 1990s, that is, since the collapse of the USSR. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation - in 2022 the GDP will decline by over 6%, the IMF expects a decline of 8.5%, the EBRD of 10%, the World Bank of 11.2%.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region's most significant issues and trends. Today, we focus on the visit that Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan paid to Tehran, where together with Iranian President Raisi, they discussed the Ukraine war and the Syrian conflict.
Lo scioglimento dei ghiacci apre prospettive future per la rotta artica, poco battuta ma più rapida ed economica. Si scaldano i motori per una nuova partita geopolitica.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is impacting security dynamics in the Middle East, exposing fissures and fragile fault lines across the region. These divides, which are not new, have been gradually widening as a result of regional competition and security challenges emerging from the shifting global order. This process has unfolded over the course of three US presidencies—Barack Obama, Donald J. Trump, and Joseph R.
President Joe Biden’s upcoming visit to the Middle East will seek to reassure regional allies at a time when the dominant narrative about the US role in the region, promulgated by Arab capitals, is that the United States is withdrawing from the Middle East and abandoning its allies and security commitments.
The war in Ukraine is further diverting US attention from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region where Russia and China have expanded their footprint over the past decade. US President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s upcoming visit to the Middle East—his first since he took office—provides an opportunity to assess the kind of role the United States will play in the MENA region in the future. The big question is whether the region is entering a post-US era and how the new regional order will be structured.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has provided a brutal reminder to the world—but especially to the West—that hard power matters and that employing military means to alter political realities has not been relegated to a distant past. For countries in the Middle East and North Africa, this is something with which they have lived for decades, and their response to the war in Ukraine has generally been to remain neutral and pursue their own interests.
The past few months have witnessed a new Middle East full of complexity and contradiction. On the one hand, some of the tensions that have gripped the region over the past decade now show signs of abating, with various adversaries engaging in dialogue and rapprochement.