Il Medio Oriente è oggi attraversato da dinamiche di segno opposto. Dal punto di vista economico, si registra una crescita incoraggiante dovuta principalmente alle maggiori risorse finanziarie, provenienti dalla rendita petrolifera, a disposizione delle monarchie del Golfo. Il forte aumento del prezzo del petrolio, avviatosi nel 1999-2000, è stato rafforzato dalla guerra in Iraq e dal fallimento della ricostruzione post-bellica.
How could the economic crisis change the internal Russian politics? Will the crisis create more authoritarianism?
Last weeks witnessed growing strife between Saakashvili government and the oppositions. Is there any prospect for bipartisan agreement on reform? In case not, which could be coming scenarios?
Despite the absence of violent interactions, the Turkish-Armenian problems for a long time constituted a bitter example of intractable conflicts. The protocols signed between Turkey and Armenia to establish diplomatic relations and open their border on 11 October under Switzerland’s mediation marks an important step toward normalization of the two countries’ relations.
Turkmenistan’s political course is changing. After almost 15 years of isolationism under the autocratic rule of former president Saparmurat Niyazov, coupled with strong economic dependency upon Russia, Ashgabat has recently launched a “multivector” foreign and commercial policy. The latter is based on Turkmenistan's oil resources and more especially on its gas resources. Ashgabat is eager to strengthen the country’s energy ties and economic cooperation with China, Iran, the US and Europe, although Russia remains Turkmenistan’s main economic partner.
This analysis looks at the recent internal and external developments in Belarus in the light of the incumbent presidential elections.
Although current President Lukashenka is likely to be reconfirmed there slight signs of more liberalisation: 10 opposition candidates will take part in the elections while the government is about to engage in a program of privatization in order to face up the consequences of the economic crisis.
The year 2011 marks the twentieth anniversary of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In 1991 fifteen states emerged from the Union, each with its own specificities and each with challenging tasks ahead: to maintain public order, to rebuild identities, societies, laws and economic systems. In a nutshell, fifteen parallel processes of state and nation building started simultaneously, with a wide set of outputs.
Why have the EU and Russia decided to engage in a new form of cooperation, the Partnership for Modernization? What is its mission and how does it differentiate from the Partnership and Cooperation agreement (renovation underway)? What does modernization mean for Russia and what are her expectations of this strengthened cooperation with Brussels? At the moment the PfM raises many questions, while its outcomes are still uncertain.
On March 13, Russia held the last local elections before the general elections scheduled for December 2011 and the March 2012 presidential elections. As was widely expected, the dominant political party United Russia has confirmed its leadership in the polls. Contrasted by the opposition’s criticism of the low democratic standards in Russia and accompanied by the modernization agenda promoted by President Medvedev, this victory prompts an analysis of the stability of the country’s political system.
40% of Russian GDP is realized within so-called monogorod i.e. single-industry towns whose economic and social life revolves around the success of a single industrial complex.
But this model is showing signs of weakness. Around 20 of these towns have managed to overcome the 2008-2010 crisis only because of strong state intervention.
The first social disorders have occurred in some towns and others could follow soon. However, in spite of these troubles it is hard to conjecture the end of the monogorod.