Afghanistan

Over the last ten years, the mantra of experts and scholars highlighted the uncertain future of Afghanistan. The situation on the ground shows an ambiguous mix of instability and tentative signs of progress. To this very day, any future scenario bears the mark of uncertainty. The dynamics of the last two years, after the massive international withdrawal due to the end of the NATO-ISAF mission, are bound to recur not just in the next months but also in the next few years.

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Iran’s regional strategy has been a matter of controversy over the past decades. The country has sought to establish itself as a key cultural, political and economic player that links the Middle East and Asia. Iran’s strategy in the region underwent changes due to the regional trends that have often been triggered by external powers’ military intervention, as well as the administrative changes in Tehran. The latest Iranian presidential election has opened a new door for the country’s foreign policy strategies.

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Since June 2013, the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) have taken over major responsibility for Afghanistan’s security throughout the country. Recently, during the two rounds of the presidential elections they have proved capable of defending territory and preventing major attacks, a fact that has been widely seen as evidence of their progress. After the relatively peaceful 14th June runoff, many observers expressed confidence that Afghan army and police are sufficiently strong to hold off any relevant military challenge by the Taliban and other Armed Opposition Groups (AOG). Although their recent performances exceeded expectations, ANSF’s readiness to confront autonomously the challenges posed by insurgency and the ability to rely on their own capacity remains dubious. ANSF still face a complex set of challenges that derive from the economic, security, political transitions undergoing in Afghanistan. This study discuss the interrelated challenges to transitioning Afghan-led security by the end of 2014, the date that would mark the transfer of all combat responsibilities to Afghan government forces. A special focus is dedicated to the Afghan National Army (ANA), as it is commonly considered the most advanced element of the ANSF.

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This paper offers an assessment of the current situation in Afghanistan through the lens of the Taliban insurgency. As the ISAF presence decreases, the onus will shift to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) to secure the country and continue the fight against the insurgents still battling the Afghan government. Moreover, because it is a key regional actor, the actions of Pakistan and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) will be critical to the endgame of the conflict and future direction of Afghanistan. 

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