China is the elephant in the (Asian) room. Its resolute reaction to the visit of US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to Taipei, its clear will to 're-unify' Mainland China with Taiwan, together with the never-ending disputes in the East China Sea are pushing Japan to adopt a more active approach to regional geopolitics. To put it bluntly, traditional military deterrence and containment is the name of the game, and Japan is ready to play. As such, is China really planning to attack and annex Taiwan? If so, when?
Mentre il calo della popolazione cinese è ora iniziato, il suo invecchiamento corre veloce. Con profonde conseguenze economiche e sociali.
A way to understand China’s foreign policy is by observing its quest for global consensus. Consensus is not only soft power, but it signifies that China is accepted as an international partner. With a rising consensus, China is perceived as place of opportunity, when it is declining China is seen more as a threat. When China is seen as a place of opportunity the barriers to its international economic footprint are lowered, when it is a threat, those barriers are high and economic and political costs arise.
US-China competition certainly is among today’s most noteworthy trends in international politics. The relationship between the two countries has yet to level off, as it is subjected to regular political pushes from each side. One year ago, US President Joe Biden gathered tens of countries for the Summit for Democracy, an attempt to frame international relations as a competition between autocracies and democracies.
The Chinese economy has faced intense challenges over the past year because of the Omicron outbreak, which is expected to result in a much lower GDP growth rate for 2022 than the one initially targeted by the government. Against this backdrop, and in the light of growing protests and disruptions in the countries’ major factories, particularly Foxconn, China suddenly chose to swiftly move away from zero-Covid in late November, which has led to a massive increase in Covid cases.
In 2022, the US-China relationship went through several important shifts. First, the China-Russia relationship took on greater importance for US strategy, as the United States sought to ensure that Chinese backing for Moscow translated into as little practical support as possible. US policy towards Russia was also crafted with specific reference to the potential application of the measures pursued – such as financial sanctions – towards China too.
European Council President Charles Michel travelled to Beijing on the 1st of December, following German Chancellor Scholz’s visit one month ago. The two meetings happened in two different contexts, as Asia has hosted an exceptional summit season over the past weeks. In both meetings, however, the issue that took center stage was Europe’s dilemma over China, as the US is upholding its intention to “vigorously compete” with Beijing, albeit seemingly trying to ease tensions on the surface.
As the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, headed to Beijing, the right way to deal with China remains a key global issue.
In this tense moment, confrontational narratives between the United States and China have drowned out the competitive and cooperative components of the relationship, increasing the risks, escalating frictions and undermining global cooperation.
The 20th Party Congress is over. Xi Jinping is the clear winner and a ‘new era’ of international competition has just started. How will The United States of America and Europe deal with an increasingly autocratic China? Did any opportunity of striking deals with Xi vanish? Should the West isolate Beijing under legitimate democratic concerns? The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will try to answer these questions soon, as he is the first Western leader to travel to Beijing since the pandemic.
The 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress has consolidated the concentration of power in the hands of the country's top leader, Secretary General Xi Jinping. And as Xi's rule is now further unchallenged, China is turning even more autocratic. How to deal with this outcome?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks the end of the Pax Americana. Russia and China openly challenge the American hegemony. The unipolar moment originated from the triumph of the West in the Cold War is over. Over the next decade, the new world order will be shaped through fierce power competition.
Six scenarios may be conceived.