Some thirty years ago, the American economist Charles Schultze (former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and director of the Budget Bureau) addressed a question in reference to the U.S. budget deficit in terms of a metaphor: Is it a wolf at the door, a domestic pussycat, or termites in the basement? In retrospect, the question, raised at a time when the ratio of U.S. general government debt to economic output stood at less than 60 per cent, seems rather trivial in the light of a debt ratio nearly twice as high today and rising.
In the past decade, the EU has shown the world its ability to struck ambitious trade deals and to create the conditions for win-win agreements. Today, its trade policy is endangered by the threat of a trade war initiated by the United States, the EU closest ally and main trade partner.
The increased protectionist turn taken by the United States, including steel and aluminium tariffs levied against the EU and other countries and a potential trade war with China, comes at an awkward time for the United Kingdom. While the United Kingdom is negotiating its exit from the European Union, it still remains within the EU and its customs union and so is dependent on the EU to negotiate on its behalf.
Can (or should) Germany accommodate the US on the steel dispute (and what could Germany lose)?
Trade between Italy and the USA has traditionally been significant and the two countries are close trade partners. The importance of the American market for Italian firms is today at its peak after many years. The US is the third foreign market for Italian exports, in 2017 accounting for 9% of the overall value of Italian goods sold abroad. In 2017, Italian exports of goods to the USA were worth over 40 billion euros, increasing remarkably in the past five years, while exports of services amounted to over 9 billion euros.
US-China trade tensions rose sharply since early 2018. The first round of direct confrontation starts with the US Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and China retaliated with tariffs covering roughly same amounts of US imports ($3 billion). Threats to impose 25 percent tariffs on about $50 billion imports from China by the United States under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 started the second round, and China retaliated by releasing its own list of products that would be subject to proposed tariffs on imports from the US.
Donald Trump won the Presidency promising to upend decades of American trade policy. A year and a half into his administration, has he delivered on these promises? And what is the future of American trade policy?
Will Trump Launch a Trade War?
Unless Prime Minister Narendra Modi calls them earlier, India’s next general elections will begin on Monday, 8 April 2019. Working backwards, the Code of Conduct under the Election Commission of India – under which the government cannot announce new projects, programmes, concessions or financial grants to prevent it from influencing voters – should be in force from Friday, 8 March 2019. As he begins the final lap of his tenure as Prime Minister, Modi has just about nine months to deliver new economic reforms and policies.
Foreign analysts often call it "magic". The remarkable capability of the Lebanese economic system to remain afloat despite domestic instability, regional turmoil, and deep structural imbalances astonishes journalists and investors. Sometimes they "lose faith" and predict its "inevitable" collapse. So far, however, only to be proven wrong.
Which are the main aims of China's international relations strategy, and how is Xi pursuing them?