Ethiopia

Le forze tigrine annunciano il ritiro da due regioni del nord. È la prima vera svolta per un cessate-il-fuoco dopo oltre un anno di conflitto.

Tigray’s campaign was to last only a few weeks. Instead, it risks of escalating into one of Africa’s worst famines.

The Ethiopian war is the most burning issue facing the people of the Horn of Africa in 2022, affecting people from Sudan to Somalia, Eritrea to Kenya and beyond. It is also among the most critical African problems the international community currently confronts.

The unfolding humanitarian and political crisis in Ethiopia has left many observers pessimistic about the likelihood of an inclusive and peaceful solution to the protracted conflict. After months of fighting between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s central government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Ethiopian state is at real risk of collapse.

Over one year after the initiation of the Ethiopian federal government’s law enforcement operation, the Tigray crisis has escalated into a widespread armed conflict. The fighting has had a devastating impact on an incalculable number of Ethiopians. The immense direct human toll has been accompanied by destruction and violence, forcing a great number of people to leave their homes and take refuge in other parts of the country or abroad.

At last, Ethiopia will have its federal and regional council elections on June 21st. Amid an ongoing conflict in Tigray, heightened international pressure, worsening economic situation due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, boiling tensions with Egypt and Sudan, and increased ethnic divisions within the country, this election takes place at a critical juncture in Ethiopia’s contemporary history.

The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on the Nile, where the dispute between Ethiopia and downstream countries over Addis Ababa’s plan to further fill his "Renaissance" dam is increasingly pressuring Arab states to mediate among quarrelling stakeholders.

In November 2020, the Ethiopian federal government launched a military operation in the northern region of Tigray. Hostilities between the federal army and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces continued in the following months. Furthermore, the involvement of ethnic-based militias as well as Eritrean armed forces have contributed to further escalate the conflict, causing a humanitarian crisis. What role did external actors play so far? How can the international community help solve the Tigray crisis? How will the conflict impact Ethiopia’s future prospects?

War always triggers a series of intended and unintended consequences. In the case of the current guerrilla war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the conflict has seemingly sparked tensions between Ethiopia and its formerly convivial neighbour, Sudan.

On the night of 14-15 November, the firing of rockets into Eritrean territory by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) forces gave a clear sign of the consequences that the conflict between the government of Ethiopia and the TPLF would have on regional balances. At that moment, a red line was crossed, and the scenario of a regional spillover of the crisis actually materialised. Eritrea found a reason to legitimise a possible intervention against the Tigrayan forces.

In early November 2020, the Ethiopian federal government launched a military operation against the TPLF-controlled authorities in the Tigray region. But the decision to turn political tensions into an open war has had profound regional implications too.

The conflict in the Tigray region underscored Etiopia's centrality in the unstable and volatile region of the Horn of Africa.

In early 2018, amidst incessant protests especially in Ethiopia’s Oromo and Amhara regions, Abiy Ahmed Ali became the new prime minister of Ethiopia. His ascent to power initiated an unprecedented series of reforms intending to democratize the country’s political system and liberalize its economy by embracing the capitalist mode of production.