Russia

On 2 December 2019, Russia and China inaugurated the  Power of Siberia pipeline, a new gas infrastructure that will boost diversification in China’s gas supply and ensure an enhanced role for Russian gas on the Chinese market. The new, 3000-km pipeline will probably reduce the weight of Turkmenistan and Australia in China’s foreign gas supplies, currently at 35% and 25.7% of total gas imports respectively ,and cover China’s rising demand for additional gas.

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In contrast with its assertiveness in Syria, Russia’s role in most conflicts in the MENA region consists of proclaiming its non-alignment and keeping all actors content. Moscow does not shy away from casting itself as a true power-broker in the region. It acts as an allegedly impartial mediator that gets along with all actors and respects each country's sovereignty, while trying to find a middle ground, or at least facilitate dialogue, between the stakeholders it deems reliable and important enough.

US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in May 2018, has been equally condemned by all the remaining parties: Russia, China, the European Union, and of course

Eight years of a bloody conflict, over 5.6 million refugees mostly spread across Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, an estimated $250 billion – according to the United Nations – to rebuild a devastated country, an exhausted population: Syria is undeniably the most consuming crisis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), whose consequences will long reverberate on the entire region.

Russia’s “return” to the MENA region did not go unnoticed in Brussels. EU-Russia relations, currently at a historic low mainly due to the conflict in Ukraine, found in the MENA region new sources of disagreement as well as potential avenues for cooperation. This situation is likely to remain unchanged in 2020 as elements of friction – especially in Syria – will persist, while some developments may make Russia and the EU converge on a number of issues. 

As 2019 comes to close, Russian mercenaries are allegedly shifting the balance of forces in Libya, helping General Haftar to reignite his efforts to take Tripoli.