trade

Dopo la pandemia, le filiere messe alla prova dalla guerra. Lockdowns, ritardi, alti costi di trasporto e scarsa competizione di mercato: si andrà verso filiere più corte?

Dall’inizio della crisi ucraina, il numero di Paesi che ha imposto restrizioni all’uso di cibo è salito da 3 a 23. Si è raggiunto il livello più alto di restrizioni ai commerci alimentari mai registrato dall’indice Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker. Di conseguenza anche i prezzi alimentari mondiali sono ai massimi. Ma ci sono responsabilità da non sottovalutare. Ecco quali.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is Africa’s most ambitious integration initiative. This free trade area will add to the existing regional economic community customs unions, free trade areas and other trading arrangements, including bilateral trade agreements. It is designed to liberalise trade between countries that are not trading under trade preferences, addressing not only tariff but also non-tariff barriers (NTBs). 

La guerra in Ucraina ha causato un nuovo shock all’economia globale e in particolar modo agli scambi commerciali: il secondo in meno di tre anni, dopo il primo “cigno nero” rappresentato dalla pandemia.

Le conseguenze economiche della guerra coinvolgono anche i flussi commerciali lungo le supply chains  dalla Russia all’Europa. È in arrivo un doppio shock?

It looked like 2020 was supposed to be an annus horribilis for international trade. Instead, despite the pandemic, the international trade system withstood the impact, though not without some bruises. Global trade flows contracted by about 5%, much less than during the 2008-9 financial crisis: an overall better performance than what had been estimated during the first wave of Covid-19 which, due to sudden and rigid lockdowns, paralyzed many supply chains.

It is hard to imagine anything more central to the world's choke points than the Suez Canal. Albeit relatively recent, built only in 1869, its enviable position - where the Asian, European, and African continents meet - has meant it has quickly climbed the ranks of the hottest bottlenecks. Around 12% of global trade passes through the Suez Canal, accounting for 30% of all global container traffic, and over $1 trillion worth of cargoes annually. In 2020, some 19,000 ships used the route.

It looked like 2020 was going to be a catastrophic year for global trade flows. Actually, despite the heavy impact of Covid-19, the international trade system showed a remarkable degree of resilience. Trade flows shrank by 5% globally, a much better (or less worse) performance than it had been initially expected in view of the substantial paralysis of several global value chains during the first pandemic wave. Nonetheless, Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) experienced a much more dramatic drop, falling by 40%.

The ocean transport market has been confronted with a worldwide prolonged disruption since August 2020. Consequently, date shippers have been trying to bring order to their procurement and carrier management processes , yet failing to do so, in part because maritime problematics concern both ports and hinterland connections.

On April 26, 1956, a converted oil tanker called Ideal-X departed Newark, New Jersey, carrying 58 aluminum containers on its deck. This voyage, which ended in Houston, Texas, received little attention at the time, but it gave birth to an industry that would reshape the world economy. Today, more than 5,300 container ships sail the seas.

Covid-19 triggered a significant contraction of international trade flows, disrupting global value chains and putting maritime logistics and transport under severe stress. Moreover, in 2021, accidents including the Ever Given container ship being stuck in the Suez Canal have raised questions around the long-term sustainability of an hyper-globalized trade system that is based on just-in-time mechanisms.