USA

President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address last week was, according to the overnight polling, generally well received by the American public (or at least by those who watched). His acknowledgements of various individuals in the gallery were poignant and moving. He invoked proud, unifying achievements from the nation’s past, like the liberation of Dachau and the Moon landing. There were even moments of bipartisan celebration, as when Trump acknowledged the record-setting number of women serving in Congress.

No. Among all the unknowns that 2019 might have in store for us, one development we need not expect is a collapse of the Islamic Republic due to the Trump administration’s policy of “maximum pressure”.

The meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping of China and Donal Trump of the US in the G20 Buenos Aries in November resulted in a reprieve of sorts – a three month pause on the imposition of further tariffs on goods exported from China to the US. This was despite fears already issued by some of Trump’s administration that over USD200 billion of goods would have taxes introduced and that in some cases these would rise to over 20 per cent by the new year. 

When we trace China’s efforts in international standard-setting over the past decade, two interesting patterns emerge 

In President Donald Trump’s first year in office, U.S. policy relating to supporting democracy abroad became starkly divided. At the level of “high policy”—direct engagement and messaging by President Trump and his principal foreign policy advisers—the United States sharply downgraded its global pro-democratic posture. Trump’s praise of dictators, criticism of democratic allies, and anti-democratic actions at home recast the United States as at best an ambivalent actor on the global democratic stage. Yet at the same time, pro-democratic “low policy”—quiet but serious engagement by U.S.

Many European politicians see the ascending trajectory of quarrels between the USA and Russia as worrisome and unhelpful for upholding security and stability in Europe. At the same time, they keep asking for a firm US leadership in countering and containing Russia’s military pressure and unconventional aggressiveness.

On November 6^th (and for several weeks before, in the many states that permit early voting), Americans will go to the polls to choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senators, and a variety of state and local officials. Currently, Republicans hold a dominant position in U.S. politics, controlling the presidency, both houses of Congress, and a strong majority of governorships and state legislative chambers.

No great power relationship has been as volatile as that between the United States and China. The US and China are each too globalized and dynamic to contain, too successful and entangled with each other to divorce without causing another global financial and geopolitical earthquake.  The United States is here to stay as a great power. China is back as one. The Middle Kingdom seems likely to become ever wealthier, technologically advanced, internationally prominent, and militarily powerful.