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President Putin's third mandate might be threatened by an increasing discontent. The opposition sentiment remains strong despite the Kremlin's efforts to muzzle dissent. Hopes for a quick change that many protesters had during the winter have waned, but opposition supporters appear ready to dig for a long fight.
Yet Russia's leadership is choosing short-term social and political stability at the expense of long-term growth and investment. All the analyses of this study stress the need for modernization and economic diversification as a way for Russia to develop into a normal state. As Popov highlights, despite impressive progress, corruption, oligarchic capitalism, deindustrialization of the economy and decline in R&D, income inequalities, deterioration of health and education, increase in mortality, clericalization of the society and cultural degradation are still impediments to the full success of the country. Busygina puts emphasis on interregional disparities and the gap in development between the centre and the periphery of the country.
On the external front, Wisniewska doubts that the establishment of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space can seriously boosts the economic attractiveness of the region even in the case of Ukraine's accession.
Verda as well insists on the need for a multi-level diversification.
Confronted with the unpredictable trend of the oil price, the Kremlin will need to carefully balance the urgency of the reforms and the preservation of the internal order and political stability. It will be a tough challenge, but it will determine Russia's place in the world for the next decades.
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| MULTIMEDIA |
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Serena Giusti, ISPI Research Fellow, presents the study.
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INDEX |
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Is Russian Economy Likely to Become
a New "Asian Tiger"?
Vladimir Popov
The economic reforming process
needed for the passage from Soviet
Union to Russia Federation was a
hard one with high social costs. By
2012 the economy finally surpassed
the pre recession level of 1989 and
the budget deficit turned into surplus. Economic growth and political
stability along with better conditions
of life have been the most relevant...
read all »
Development of Russia's Regions:
Current Trends and
Implications of Modernisation
Irina Busygina
The spatial dimension of Russia
is crucial in evaluating the
consequences of all domestic
reforms and external shocks,
taking into consideration the
territorial size of the country and
the degree of interregional
disparities. Thus, the recent
global economic crisis has
shown a significant degree of interregional
disparities. Thus, the recent global economic...
read all »
The Customs Union of Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Russia: a Way to Strengthen
Moscow's Position in the Region
Iwona Wisniewska
In mid-2009, Russian Prime Minister
Putin gave new impetus to launch
the Customs Union and the Common
Economic Space between Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Russia, and
has consistently supervised its
implementation ever since. The
Common Import Tariff and the
Common Customs Code were introduced
in 2010. Formally, the Common
Economic Space began...
read all »
Russian Oil and Gas Sector:
Political and Economic Prospects
Matteo Verda
Energy sector has a pivotal role
for the economy and the political
system of the Russian Federation.
Oil and gas industry provides a
quarter of the GDP, two thirds of
the exports and half of the budget
income. As a result, Russian
economy and Government
expenditures rely on high oil price. A sudden drop would bring to a
deep economic crisis, with
unpredictable...
read all »
ISSN 2281-3152
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| RESEARCH TEAM |
Serena Giusti and Tomislava Penkova (Heads of Research), Irina Busygina, Vladimir Popov, Matteo Verda, Iwona Wisniewska
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