by Filippo Clô - Low oil prices are finally affecting shale production. However, the shale industry continues to show a strong resiliency and it may eventually emerge as a winner in this new lower for longer scenario.
by ISPI Energy Watch - Some time ago we discussed whether US independents could become the new “swing producers”. It does not seem so. Or maybe it is going to happen. April figures and new information leave us in the middle of nowhere, as no piece of the puzzle seems to fit into the other.
EIA and IEA have each revised upwards their 2015 oil demand forecast (respectively to 1 and 1.1 million bbl/day). This should be good news in terms of market rebalancing; and it heralds a potential for price increase. Except that oversupply keeps raiding on top of the increase in demand and stays around 1.7 million bbl/day. Forecasts suggest that it should lower in the second half of the year; but all or almost all forecasts confirm that oversupply is here to stay, and so at least for the whole of 2015.
Massimo Nicolazzi, head of the ISPI Energy Watch, delivered today the opening lecture at the annual conference of the Centro studi di economia tecnica dell’energia Giorgio Levi Cases (University of Padua).