After decades of unsatisfying performances, economic growth took off in many sub-Saharan states at the beginning of the 21st century. More recently, however, the end of the commodity cycle – particularly with the oil price drop – and the rise of jihadist violence rocked the “Emerging Africa” boat. Is this the beginning of the end for sustained growth in the region?
This Report investigates the economic impact of these new challenges upon Africa’s frontier markets. It shows that the positive economic trajectory of recent years is being negatively affected, particularly for oil-exporting countries. However, while more caution is needed, Africa’s growth prospects on the whole remain fairly good – at least for now.
But there is an increasing need to understand the specific risks that individual countries face and the opportunities that they offer, as well as to re-assess the potential of each specific sector of economic activity. The three largest economies in the region – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – are all under pressure. Others, including Ethiopia, Mozambique and Kenya, are still projected to achieve remarkable growth rates.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION, Paolo Magri
1. Hydrocarbons in Sub-Saharan Africa: Origins of Growth or Sources of Decline?, John R. Heilbrunn
2. Oil and Beyond: African Economies and the End of the Commodities Super-Cycle, Giulia Pellegrini
3. Political Violence and the Jihad in Africa, Jakkie Cilliers
4. Nigeria: Challanges and Opportunities at a Time of Cheap Oil and a Costly Insurgency, Leena K. Hoffmann
5. The End of "Emerging Africa"? Prospects for Sub-Saharan Frontier Markets, Giovanni Carbone
APPENDIX, Sub-Saharan Countries, Basic Data
* The ISPI online papers are also published with the support of Fondazione Cariplo