Bosnia’s Instability Vortex, Thirty Years Later

Thirty years ago, Bosnia-Herzegovina declared independence from Yugoslavia and soon after entered a war that would eventually claim the lives of an estimated 100,000 people. Today, Bosnia faces “the greatest existential threat of the post-war period”, as secessionist moves by Bosnian Serb leader, Milorad Dodik, have the potential to disrupt the central state. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, such threat is all the more alarming. However, there are other elements undermining Bosnia’s governance, including gridlocks around reforming the Dayton Constitution and a long-standing demographic crisis that is depriving the country of thousands of youngsters, who are choosing to emigrate.
What role do international actors play in the Bosnian institutional paralysis? Could the current international crisis spill over onto Bosnia, too? Which elements contribute to Bosnia’s instability?