In the wake of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, there is no doubt that the international order that has developed throughout the 20th century is facing a crisis. In order to protect the liberal international order, human rights, democracy, the principle that the status quo should not be changed by force and that peaceful conflict resolution is necessary are all essential and are now being challenged. It will be imperative not only for the G-7 but also for the rest of the world to show unity, to delegitimise Russia's actions, and to strengthen economic sanctions. Japan, too, is taking a step forward from its traditional diplomatic stance toward Russia and is boldly joining the economic sanctions imposed by G-7 and EU member states.
Still, China’s rise poses the gravest geopolitical threat to the United States, Europe and Japan, and its challenge to the liberal international order remains crucial. Of course, if Russia disrupts the existing international order, it will set a dangerous precedent for China's future actions. Nevertheless, China has the potential to redraw the global balance of power in terms of military power in nuclear and conventional forces, economic power, scientific and technological power and political influence. Moreover, in addition to its geopolitical importance in the Western Pacific, Taiwan is a powerful productive force in the global supply chain. The attention of the United States and its allies to dealing with Russia, and the strategic advantage that China has gained, must not hasten the arrival of a China-centric world.
Over the past year, since taking office, the Biden administration has followed the general framework of the Trump administration's China strategy. It has developed a raft of policies that weaken China's innovation and favour the US and its allies instead. Indeed, the US has published its Indo-Pacific Strategy and will soon reveal the contents of its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, leaving something to be desired. While it is understandable that the US is continuing its stance of dialogue with China to avoid conflict and cooperate with China on global issues, it still seems to be placing higher expectations on dialogue than necessary. Furthermore, there is a hint of unease in the logic of foreign policy for the middle class behind the US policy of avoiding conflict and prioritising its domestic industry.
Nonetheless, the Biden administration's emphasis on allies and partners in building the international order is hopeful. There is a strong sense in the Biden administration's thinking that creating a favourable international environment is best achieved through the layering of sectoral and regional frameworks by countries that advocate a liberal international order. The Biden administration is shaping new frameworks, behaving with a ‘forum mania’ similar to Secretary of State John Foster Dulles' alliance strategy known as ‘pactomania’.
The QUAD between the US, Japan, Australia and India essentially centres on summit meetings, but working-level talks are taking place not only on COVID-19 but also on the future of technology. The AUKUS agreement between the US, the UK and Australia has certainly provoked opposition from France, but from Japan's perspective, there is no reason to oppose the cooperative development of sensitive technologies by these three countries. Some argue that Japan should make preparations to join such a solid international framework for advanced technology development as AUKUS. The US government is also setting up new frameworks for export control and human rights and for secure information networks. The fact that multilateralism has been reinvigorated during the Biden administration, albeit in the form of ‘minilateralism’, is a favourable development.
Japan, which this year marks the 50th anniversary of the normalisation of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, is undoubtedly placing importance on economic and social relations with its neighbour China. However, security concerns about China are not limited to the defence of remote islands but are growing into a fear that China will fundamentally redraw the Indo-Pacific order and the liberal international order. More than the United States or any other US ally, Japan desperately wants peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait since a contingency in Taiwan would inevitably involve Japan. It is well known that disinformation campaigning is practiced on a large scale in Taiwan, but influence operations using disinformation has also been observed in Japan.
In a long-term perspective, China's economy has many negative elements, but in the meantime, China will undoubtedly use its economic power to build a network of power in its neighbouring countries and bring about significant change in the discourse space on universal values. That China's influence is expanding is evident from the fact that the diplomatic stance of Southeast Asian countries toward the United States and China has not changed in the past five years or so, when the rivalry between the United States and China has become fierce, and from the fact that voices supporting China's position at the United Nations are growing stronger.
Japan is preparing for a multifaceted response to China's challenge. In 2022, a bill on economic security is expected to pass in the Japanese Diet, and the Kishida administration will also revise critical documents such as the National Security Strategy and the National Defense Program Guideline. In addition to strengthening the Japan-US alliance and diplomatic and security cooperation with Australia and the UK, there are high expectations for Japan to strengthen its relations with EU countries. They are not limited to exercising military presence but also include export control, building secure information networks and robust supply chains, and setting rules for emerging technologies. It remains to be seen what the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework will look like, but it is thought that the US-EU Trade and Technology Council will serve as a reference point, and cross-regional policy coordination will be inevitable.
Moreover, with the military presence of European countries in the Indo-Pacific, Japan is responsible for showing solidarity with Europe and a willingness to resist clearly and robustly the existential threat from Russia to the international order.
This booklet is promoted within the fourth edition of the Asia & Europe Initiative "Stability and Security in the Indo-Pacific: The US, Japan, the EU and the Elephant in the Room" which gathers together leading experts, Asian and European think thank representatives, as well as Italian companies and agencies to discuss the increasing geopolitical interest in the Indo-Pacific Region.
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