The six-month Libyan civil war that raged from February resulted in re-markably little field damage. A full recovery to pre-war Libyan output of around 1.6mn b/d should be achiev-able by mid-2012. But destruction at some export terminals are causing a bottleneck for further increases. Cleary the biggest restraint on the future of energy sector in Libya is political instability.
The hydrocarbon prosperity and the need for an efficient energy system to obtain the redistribution of income, may be decisive factors in order to force the various factions to agree and to find a peaceful modus vivendi.
The rise of Islamic political groups also leads to uncertainties on the broad economic policy that these, once in power, might take.