The agreement reached in Vienna on 14 July, 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (United States, Russia, China, France, United Kingdom, Germany) has been greeted as an historical achievement. While offering a long-lasting negotiated solution to one of the biggest crises of the last decade, the deal represents an opportunity for a deep recalibration of the balance of power in the Middle East. It also paves the way to some sort of rapprochement between Iran and the United States. But the deal is also likely to have an impact on Iranian domestic politics, not least on its economy, which, after repeated rounds of sanctions, languishes in deep crisis.
This report aims to assess the potential effects of the deal by trying to answer the following question: what’s next for Iran, the Middle East and the countries involved in the negotiations? In particular, the report provides an assessment of the JCPOA agreed upon in Vienna. It also analyzes the impact of the deal on Iranian domestic politics as well as the consequences for its economy. In addition, it examines its effects on the balance of power in the Middle East, as well as on relations between Iran and the United States, and Iran and Russia. Finally a number of policy recommendations for the EU are provided.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION, Paolo Magri
1. The Nuclear Deal: Exploiting Its Potential, Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi
2. Iran's Economy and Energy: Back in Business?, Sara Bazoobandi
3. What's Next for Rouhani?, Annalisa Perteghella
4. The Middle East and the Deal: In Search of a New Balance, Rouzbeh Parsi
5. Iran and the US: The One in a Million Opportunity, Claudia Castiglioni and Mariele Merlati
6. The Iran-Russia Entente: Marriage of Convenience or Strategic Partnership, Clément Therme
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE EU
* The ISPI online papers are also published with the support of Fondazione Cariplo
