Libya's Crisis: What Agenda, Whose Agenda?

On May 29, French President Emmanuel Macron has hosted a UN sponsored conference on Libya in Paris, aimed at securing elections and commitments to a joint political roadmap from its warring factions. The conference has brought together key Libyan players and representatives of two dozen countries and international organizations. Libya’s rival leaders have adopted a statement calling for presidential and parliamentary elections in December. However, some relevant problems could persist. As for the previous meeting in Paris in July 2017, political and diplomatic preparation still seems insufficient. At the international level, Italy, Great Britain, Russia, and the United States were only marginally involved in the French initiative. At the internal level, the militias, which have the real power on the ground, were not involved and the most powerful in western Libya have rejected the conference. In addition, holding elections in 2018 might be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, elections could indeed be a way to reduce the multiple legitimacies of the country to one; but on the other hand – as happened in the 2014 elections – they could lead to a new phase of political polarization.