At last, day broke in Israel. After a long night spent counting double envelopes, hoping they contained the votes needed by Meretz and Balad to reach the threshold, the dawn announced Benjamin Netanyahu's return. This victory comes after five rounds of elections in less than four years, all of which ended in political stalemate. Last polls, prior to the election, took place on October 28 and showed a tie between the two blocs: it seemed like the standstill between Netanyahu’s camp and the coalition led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid was meant to remain in place. Nevertheless, the morning after the election, the awakening was sweeter than expected for Benjamin Netanyahu, who saw the much-desired majority appearing in front of him: with all votes counted, Likud emerged again as the largest party with 32 seats, and the entire bloc reached the majority threshold of 60 seats, thanks to the incredible result of the extreme-right Religious Zionism party, which won 14 seats in parliament, doubling its previous presence. The Haredi party Shas also emerged strengthened with 11 seats, while United Torah Judaism recorded a slight decline with 8 seats. Having these numbers at his disposal, Netanyahu will form a government with a total of 65 seats, against the 45 and 10 totalled respectively by the Lapid bloc and the Arab parties.
Precisely the votes coming from the Arab constituencies could have changed the balance, taking the majority away from Netanyahu, bringing it down from 65 to less than 60 seats: if the Arab party Balad and the historic left-wing Meretz party had managed to cross the 3.25% threshold, this morning Israel would have faced a radically different scenario. The obstacle that prevented this are the 3700 votes that the opposition is missing. This narrow margin underlines the serious lack of organisation and coordination among the parties of this bloc which, contrary to what Netanyahu put in place, did not bother to create a unified strategy. First of all, they failed to recognise the authority of Yair Lapid as the leader of the camp. In addition, they did not succeed in protecting the parties most at risk through the creation of coalitions and the signing of further agreements on the surplus of votes. Not to mention the low turnout by Arab voters, which was 55% in this election – clearly below the national average – and which did not help to strengthen the results of Ra'am, Hadash-Ta' al (which got 5 seats each) and to save Balad. An equally miserable fate awaited the now fallen Labour Party, which this time entered the Knesset by a whisker with 3.56% of the votes, corresponding to 4 seats. On the contrary, Yesh Atid and National Unity (a party born from the merger of Kahol Lavan of Benny Gantz and New Hope of Gideon Sa'ar) won 24 and 12 seats respectively, attracting most of the votes from anti-Bibi camp supporters.
When the balance is drawn, with his corruption trial underway, the coalition that Netanyahu will form is quite obvious, i.e., the one composed by his three allies Shas, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism. This would be the most obvious choice, not only because they are natural partners and (theoretically) no other party in the Knesset is willing to join his government, but mostly because Netanyahu's far-right team will be perfect to reform the justice system. Even though everything seems quite simple, two considerations may be made. In the first place, in every government he formed, Netanyahu had at his side at least one centre-left party that had not supported him during the electoral campaign. Although this time it would seem unlikely, on the one hand this would allow him to further weaken the opposition and, on the other hand, to reduce the strength of Religious Zionism. In fact, Netanyahu has never liked strong, independent allies who could emerge as potential successors. For these reasons, Itamar Ben-Gvir (the man responsible for the great electoral success of Religious Zionism) may be considered by Netanyahu as a not fully manageable threat, which must be contained by expanding the coalition. However, it may be too late to contain the impact of Religious Zionism, a party born from the will of Netanyahu himself; in 2020, it forced the Haredi and neo-Kahanist nationalists to come together on a single list to prevent the loss of far-right votes.
Yet, the alliance he created is now threatening his most precious political resource, the pro-Bibi bloc, which was based on a simple rule: Likud can have smaller partners – right-wing, nationalist, religious parties that must not cross the borders of their own constituencies, while Netanyahu draws from their reserves by channelling voters into Likud. Then, there are the two Haredi parties, whose voters are also off-limits to Netanyahu. The agreement with United Torah Judaism and Shas was crystal clear: not to draw votes from the ultra-Orthodox community, in exchange for their complete loyalty. Ben-Gvir, though, does not play by any rules and has broken the myth that Haredi voters always vote following their rabbis. In fact, many votes for Religious Zionism came precisely from the constituencies of the two ultra-Orthodox camps, causing disappointment in the party leaders who, however, are stuck in the pact sealed with Netanyahu.
Beyond the discontent among the haredim, Netanyahu must also realise that he unknowingly gave his blessing to a substantial portion of Likud voters who, evidently, wanted to push even further to the right, giving Ben-Gvir a sizable slice of his constituents. Certainly, Ben-Gvir helped Netanyahu achieve and surpass the 61-seat goal, but it is equally true that he shook the foundations of his political alliances.
We therefore may conclude by the second consideration: it is too early to predict how the balance of power will evolve within Netanyahu's camp. However, the bad blood that has accumulated among the allies will not turn to water during the negotiations to form the government. Indeed, Ben-Gvir will surely present the bill to Netanyahu and, together with the demands that Shas and United Torah Judaism will make, they will give a taste of how the life of his future government will unfold. Netanyahu cannot fail again. Not only must he form a government, but it also has to be a relatively stable one, allowing him to heal his alliances and have carte blanche to finally tame the legal system and have his trial cancelled.
