The Role of Tribal Dynamics in the Libyan Future | ISPI
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Analysis

The Role of Tribal Dynamics in the Libyan Future

Arturo Varvelli
31 maggio 2013

Abstract

Besides the jihadist tide interesting most of the African countries, besides the typical difficulties of a nation that after 40 years of dictatorial regime and a ruinous civil war has to face a rebuilding of the state, another impossible combination of factors seems to paralyze the new Libya.

The purpose of implementing a democratic order in a rentier country, where Islam is the dominant religion and, at the same time, the main source of popular identity, risks to remain unsatisfied for a long time.

In this paper is theorized the idea of a real ‘trilemma’ concerning the impossible coexistence of democracy, Islam and oil-based national revenues; in fact, no country so far has presented these three factors together.

In such a context, external and internal actors can further com-promise the future of the country.

This analysis focuses exactly on the role of tribes (since always considered the most relevant internal actors of the country) in the current Libyan transition process and, in particular, on the relationship between tribes and the emerging Islamist framework.

 
*Arturo Varvelli is ISPI Research Fellow

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Libya Libya and democracy Libyan society
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Autori

Arturo Varvelli
Research Fellow

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