Since 2011, Libya has been increasingly described as politically, militarily and territorially fragmented, lacking a strong central authority and solid national political and military institutions.[1] In particular, the disconnect between political and military actors, that is the inability of representatives of transitional state institutions to exercise their authority on the armed groups on the ground, has proved detrimental to restore state authority.
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16 febbraio 2021
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The new Rome MED This Week newsletter provides experts’ analyses and informed comments on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. This week, Yemen takes centre stage after Biden’s recent announcements that could change the critical situation on the ground.
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15 febbraio 2021
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2020 has been a challenging year for the world economy. Although the magnitude of the shock triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic differed widely from one country to another, no economy was left unscathed.
05 febbraio 2021
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After weeks of speculation about the fast-eroding ties between the federal government of Ethiopia and Tigray regional authorities, the nightmare scenario that many analysts and regional watchers had been warning about finally materialised when the Ethiopian Prime Minister - a Noble Peace laureate - declared war on the Tigray region on November 4.
31 gennaio 2021
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War always triggers a series of intended and unintended consequences. In the case of the current guerrilla war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the conflict has seemingly sparked tensions between Ethiopia and its formerly convivial neighbour, Sudan.
31 gennaio 2021
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On the night of 14-15 November, the firing of rockets into Eritrean territory by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) forces gave a clear sign of the consequences that the conflict between the government of Ethiopia and the TPLF would have on regional balances. At that moment, a red line was crossed, and the scenario of a regional spillover of the crisis actually materialised. Eritrea found a reason to legitimise a possible intervention against the Tigrayan forces.
31 gennaio 2021
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Intra-state conflicts in the Horn of Africa have always had a devastating domino effect, making the region one of Africa's most highly unpredictable and conflictive zones.
31 gennaio 2021
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The operation conducted by the Ethiopian Federal Army in the northern Tigray region threatens to trigger a further wave of instability in one of the most vulnerable areas of the world. Ethiopia is the keystone of a very fragile arc of instability that has Afghanistan on one side, and Libya on the other. Accordingly, it would be narrow-minded to consider the impact of the current crisis on the Horn of Africa alone. By examining it from a regional angle, it is possible to identify a variety of issues that render the context highly volatile.
30 gennaio 2021
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The year 2021 is the twentieth anniversary of the beginning of the US war in Afghanistan and marks a critical juncture for the country. President Joe Biden entered the Oval Office on January 20, and less than 100 days remain before May 1, 2021, the deadline for the US troops’ withdrawal according to the Doha agreement signed in February 2020 between the US and the Taliban. The Biden/Harris administration has a short time to decide whether to adhere to, revoke or renegotiate the terms of that deal.
26 gennaio 2021
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For almost 18 months, Lebanon has been beset by a series of disjointed and severe crises: economic depression, street protests, the unstoppable coronavirus and an explosion that damaged half of Beirut.
19 gennaio 2021