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Pubblicazione
Abiy Ahmed Might Have Won Over the TPLF, But Ethiopia Is Weakened

After weeks of speculation about the  fast-eroding ties between the federal government of Ethiopia and Tigray regional authorities, the nightmare scenario that many analysts and regional watchers had been warning about finally materialised when the Ethiopian Prime Minister - a Noble Peace laureate - declared war on the Tigray region on November 4.

07 gennaio 2021
Pubblicazione
The TPLF Crisis in Ethiopia: When Diplomatic Involvement is Perceived as Offensive

The military conflict that exploded on 4 November in the Tigray region of Ethiopia was a culmination of serious tensions between the TPLF and the Federal government led by PM Abiy Ahmed. The Ethiopian government has labelled it “Operation Enforcing Law and Order”, while the TPLF called it an invasion. The conflict was sparked by an attack on the federal army division based in Tigray.

07 gennaio 2021
Pubblicazione
Summit to watch 2021: the Italian G20

What are the main variables on which the success of Italy’s presidency of the G20 in 2021 depends? The question is particularly relevant with only a few days to go before the end of a year that has made the need for – and the absence of – effective global governance mechanisms so evident.

28 Dicembre 2020
Pubblicazione
Country to watch 2021: Germany

The long era of Angela Merkel's chancellorship will draw to an end in 2021, leaving a series of major question marks, some of which hang over not only Germany's destiny, but also that of Europe. On 26 September, Germans will head back to the polls, but it will be the first time an incumbent chancellor, at the height of her popularity, is not throwing her hat back into the ring. Merkel's exit could very well leave her party, and the country as a whole, in a sort of horror vacui. The election results will also have inevitable repercussions for the balance in Europe.

28 Dicembre 2020
Pubblicazione
Deal to watch 2021: the JCPOA and Iran

2021 will be a crucial year for Iran, particularly when it comes to its nuclear dossier. The file has been one of the main international security priorities since 2002, when previously undisclosed Iranian nuclear activities were revealed, raising concerns about the nature of the Iranian nuclear programme. The announcement of the deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (also branded as JCPOA or Iran deal) in July 2015, after years of on-and-off negotiations, assuaged these concerns and provided a roadmap for the issue to be finally addressed.

28 Dicembre 2020
Pubblicazione
The Post-Covid Economy: A Two-Speed Recovery?

The Covid crisis did not affect every country in the same manner. We have long known that symmetric shocks almost always have asymmetric consequences. While there are marked differences even within homogeneous areas (such as the Eurozone), the differences between macro-regions are particularly striking. In October of this year, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook projected a 5.8% decline in GDP for advanced countries in 2020 (with an 8.3% decline for the Eurozone and a 4.3% decline for the United States).

28 Dicembre 2020
Pubblicazione
MENA Region: Spring is yet to come

Inequality fosters instability. This is especially true when it overlaps with a growing sense of injustice, expanding corruption, and declining distrust in political leaders, parties, and institutions.

The Covid-19 pandemic and the measures associated with its containment have negatively impacted economic growth, capital inflows, and productivity across the world. The ripple effects have hit hardest the most vulnerable in our societies.

28 Dicembre 2020
Pubblicazione
America and the world: getting the band back together?

Of all the differences between the Biden and Trump approaches to foreign policy, alliance relations will represent one of the most dramatic. Donald Trump’s skepticism of American allies has been well-known: they are, in his mind, largely free-riding countries enriching themselves under U.S. protection, underinvesting in defense, insufficiently sharing the financial burden, and generally taking advantage of an overly-generous American people.

28 Dicembre 2020
Pubblicazione
Covid-19 Vaccine: The 2021 Diplomatic Currency?

We enter 2021 with stark reminders of how a pandemic can wreck a global economy and destabilize nations. After almost twenty years of steady poverty reduction through the Global Goals, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) sent more than 100 million people back to extreme poverty[1], and simultaneously collapsed oil markets, the airlines, and other industries.

28 Dicembre 2020
Pubblicazione
US-China tensions: time out?

While Donald Trump and Xi Jinping trade charges and counter-charges, announcing and then canceling tariffs in the seemingly never-ending trade dispute between the United States and China, it is a mistake to view the trade dispute as simply a spat between the two, and that it will end with Joseph Biden’s presidency. It is not a Trump-Xi fight, or even mainly a U.S.-China one.

28 Dicembre 2020
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