The 50th anniversary of the independence of the Democratic Republic of Congo offers an occasion to review the successes and failures of this African giant.
Lo Stato fa la guerra e la guerra fa lo Stato. La nascita del Sud Sudan, che sarà celebrata il 9 luglio a Juba, realizza entrambi gli elementi di un distico ormai storico. Il Sudan ha difeso finché possibile la sua integrità e sovranità, ma al termine di una guerra durata quasi ininterrottamente dall’indipendenza nel lontano 1956 si è piegato al realismo se non a una sconfitta. Il Comprehensive Peace Agreement (Cpa), firmato nel 2005, prevedeva l’opzione secessionista e nel referendum svoltosi all’inizio di questo 2011 il responso è stato pressoché unanime.
The fragility and failure of the states in Africa is an issue of increasing concern for the international community. For Italy, it is becoming a matter of importance due to the existing ties with the Horn of Africa and to the expanding attention the country is devoting to the Sahelian region.
Islam and various forms of political Islam play an important part in the political life of the Horn of Africa. Especially after 11th September 2001, the religious dimension of politics in the Horn has acquired a new and more important relevance. This Analysis attempts to assess how, in the recent history of the Horn, Islam has come to play a part that shapes the Horn’s international position and its regional dynamics.
The high instabilty in the Horn of Africa is primarily due to ethnic, political and religious issues. Such issues are clearly linked to economic factors as well. In the history of the Region serious economic crisis have triggered revolutions and changes in governments. The countries of the Horn of Africa are some of the poorest countries in the world, with large percentages of their population living under the poverty line.
After 20 years of civil war, protracted states of conflict are the continuing hallmarks of Somalia. The new institutional landscape created according to the ‘Djibouti Agreement’ of 19 August 2008 has not resolved the crisis because of the lack of a genuine process of political inclusion. While Somaliland and Puntland did not join the Djibouti peace process, Mogadishu’s Transitional Federal Institutions (TFI) have been confronted with increasing attacks and territorial extension by al-Shabaab, the Somali Jihad movement.
This policy brief analyzes how the end of the Cold War has characterized regional dynamics within the states of the Horn. The hegemonic role of Ethiopia has been strengthened by its intervention in Somalia, as well as by the Eritrean situation. The ‘economic miracle’ experienced by Ethiopia is also helping to consolidate its role in the region. The division of Sudan into two states is expected to change the regional dynamics as well.
Somalia ranks amongst the for-eign policy priorities of Italy, since the colonial times. Italian interests in Somalia are motivated by piracy and by the threat of terrorism, but also by the strategic position Somalia has in the region.
The deadline for the mandate of the transitional federal institutions, which should have expired the coming August, offers a unique occasion to rethink Italy's interests and involvement in Somalia.
Somalia's recent history is emblematic of the issues and fault lines which flow through the Horn of Africa.
The past 20 years have witnessed the adoption of different policies and geopolitical strate-gies but their outcome has been poor and the violence and social and economic misery affecting Somalis is an evident international failure.
The migration from Africa towards Europe, in the present political, military and humanitarian context, represents a crucial variable for Europe. This is an issue not only for the Mediterranean Member States - which have to manage the flows of people migrating from Libya and Tunisia – but it is an issue also for the entire infrastructure of European governance.