Baghdad

Ricostruzione dello stato e divisioni settarie  

Le prossime elezioni si apprestano a costituire l’ennesimo banco di prova per la fragile democrazia irachena. Nuri al-Maliki, l’attuale primo ministro in corsa per un nuovo mandato, pare destinato a giocare un ruolo di primo piano all’interno del complesso e frammentato scenario iracheno, ma la sua rielezione è tutt’altro che scontata.

Caduto il regime di Saddam Hussein nel 2003, l’Iraq è da più di dieci anni considerato da Teheran come parte integrante della propria sfera di influenza regionale. L’approccio iraniano, tuttavia, si è contraddistinto per il proprio pragmatismo. L’Iran infatti non ha mai tentato di imporre o promuovere il proprio modello di stato, riconoscendo la diversità della comunità e del clero sciita iracheno, tradizionalmente distante – se non avverso – alla dottrina khomeinista.

A oltre dieci anni dalla caduta del regime baathista, fare un bilancio della situazione irachena è estremamente difficile e ancor più complicato è capire cosa il futuro potrà riservare. Nonostante le enormi difficoltà che il paese deve tuttora affrontare, non è possibile ignorare gli obiettivi raggiunti in questi anni dal “nuovo Iraq” e i timidi segnali di ripresa che potrebbero porre le basi per una vera e propria rinascita della “terra dei due fiumi”.

Abstract Historically, Iraq stands out as one of the cultural, religious and political centres of the Middle East, a leading country which has constantly exerted a relevant impact on the regional system. However, after years of wars and sanctions and, most recently, the Iraqi Freedom military operation, Iraq crumbled into a difficult period of transition which culminated in the civil war between 2005 and 2006. In 2011, the restoration of its full sovereignty opened up a new phase in this process of transition towards a new internal balance of power. At the same time, Iraq’s government regained the capacity to determine its foreign policy. This contribution aims to give an overview of the recent developments in Iraq’s efforts to reposition itself in the international and regional system, detailing the ratio of Iraqi foreign policy with a specific focus on the relationship between Baghdad, Tehran, Riyadh and Ankara. Paolo Maggiolini, Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Foundation for Interreligious and Intercultural Research and Dialogue.

Abstract
Iraq is expected to be one of the fastest growing countries in the world and the country could experience further growth, if Oil & Gas legislation and regulatory reform are approved. Recent years have clearly shown that Iraq’s socio-economic problems can be attributed to the ineffective use of oil revenues and to weak institutions, which have become a constraint to delivering even basic services. This paper shows that Iraq has made limited economic progress and will demonstrate that without sound institutions and social cohesion it is impossible to make significant economic progress. Since oil is the country main drive for economic growth, the paper will discuss the potential of implementing the “National Energy Strategy” to meet domestic energy needs; foster the growth of a diversified national economy; improve the standard of living of Iraqi citizens and create employment. The analysis will also demonstrate that the new energy strategy could make Iraq one of the most powerful economies in the region but that this is highly contingent on its having sound and robust institutions. If this is not achieved, the country could move towards what is commonly referred to as the “Oil Curse”.
Kamal Field Al-Basri and Mudhar Al-Sebahi, Iraqi Institute for Economic Reform, Baghdad, Iraq.