business scenarios

In the past decade, the EU has shown the world its ability to struck ambitious trade deals and to create the conditions for win-win agreements. Today, its trade policy is endangered by the threat of a trade war initiated   by the United States, the EU closest ally and main trade partner.

The increased protectionist turn taken by the United States, including steel and aluminium tariffs levied against the EU and other countries and a potential trade war with China, comes at an awkward time for the United Kingdom. While the United Kingdom is negotiating its exit from the European Union, it still remains within the EU and its customs union and so is dependent on the EU to negotiate on its behalf.

Can (or should) Germany accommodate the US on the steel dispute (and what could Germany lose)?

Trade between Italy and the USA has traditionally been significant and the two countries are close trade partners. The importance of the American market for Italian firms is today at its peak after many years. The US is the third foreign market for Italian exports, in 2017 accounting for 9% of the overall value of Italian goods sold abroad. In 2017, Italian exports of goods to the USA were worth over 40 billion euros, increasing remarkably in the past five years, while exports of services amounted to over 9 billion euros.

US-China trade tensions rose sharply since early 2018. The first round of direct confrontation starts with the US Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and China retaliated with tariffs covering roughly same amounts of US imports ($3 billion). Threats to impose 25 percent tariffs on about $50 billion imports from China by the United States under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 started the second round, and China retaliated by releasing its own list of products that would be subject to proposed tariffs on imports from the US.

Donald Trump won the Presidency promising to upend decades of American trade policy. A year and a half into his administration, has he delivered on these promises? And what is the future of American trade policy?

Will Trump Launch a Trade War?