business scenarios

Over the last two years, global economy – and the EU’s in particular – has been shaken by two “black swans” in a row: Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. After the impressive economic rebound in 2021, the conflict has already taken its economic toll: growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are heavily revised downwards, public debts are skyrocketing, and inflation is at 30-year high, and likely to keep rising.

La guerra in Ucraina complica la già difficile transizione energetica. Ora più che mai serve un mix di incentivi e politiche pubbliche per investimenti e ricerca.

The transition to low-carbon energy systems has the potential to shift geopolitical power, as it will create winners and losers across countries. The clean energy business is certainly lucrative for its winners: the IEA estimates that the transition would create a $1.2 trillion market for clean energy.

Global economic interdependence –usually known simply as globalisation – has radically changed its role in international relations over the past two decades. It was actively pursued by major world economic powers between the 1980s and the Great Financial Crisis, as an instrument to secure good, widespread economic relations, with a view to preventing the rise of geopolitical frictions.

Supply chains have been thrust into the international spotlight by the economic disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, which exacerbated preexisting concerns about Chinese dominance in critical sectors. As a result, the U.S. has come to emphasize supply chain resilience as an essential element of its economic security, focusing particularly on key industries such as semiconductors, critical minerals, high-capacity batteries, and pharmaceuticals.

Contemporary energy dynamics suggest we are heading towards years of likely price volatility, with a strong necessity for governmental support schemes to channel the investments required to achieve the green transition. The final destination of this journey, as well as the travelling speed, will ultimately depend on available resources, technology, and consensus. This consensus, in turn, relies on the capability to distribute in a non-regressive way the costs of the transition.

Occorre aumentare gli investimenti per la transizione verso energie green. Gli alti prezzi delle fonti fossili dimostrano che non c'è tempo da perdere.

While the outcomes and legacy of COP26 are still up to debate, the lead up to the climate summit—co-hosted by the UK and Italy—marked an unmistakeable shift in global climate ambitions. Numerous countries pledged long-term targets to reach net zero emissions and put forth a patchwork of near-term commitments to get emissions on the right track.

In recent years, Africa has become an arena for international competition in which global balances and hierarchies have been reshuffled. The US’ gradual retrenchment and China’s simultaneous explosive growth have left power vacuums that other players have tried to fill. Among these, Turkey has gained increasing influence. In Africa, the Anatolian country can afford to play a role that exceeds its actual capacity as an emerging mid-level power.

2021 has settled the role gained by street protests in recent years. Is it one of the symptoms of social evolution?

Globalization as we know it is destined to change. Disruptive changes in industrial production and global demand are contributing to this phenomenon.