Central Asia

How did the invasion of Ukraine change the perception of Russia’s image among its neighbours? At the moment, it’s still difficult to predict the result of fighting on the ground and, hence, the impact on Russia’s image as a mighty military power and security provider. Yet, the invasion has further deteriorated Moscow’s image as a trustworthy partner. As a result, several countries are severing ties with Russia out of fear or in solidarity with Ukraine.

Uzbekistan’s economic and security situation has been significantly changed by Russia’s war on Ukraine. Uzbek-Russian relations have been improving since Shavkat Mirziyoyev became Uzbekistan’s president in late 2016, but the Kremlin’s aggression in Ukraine threatens to undo some of the recent progress in Uzbekistan’s ties with Russia.

There were no illusions about Russia across the corridors of power in Chisinau before February 24th.

It is hard to predict the outcome of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though we can be reasonably certain about two things concerning this crisis. First, it will eventually end. Second, Russia will continue posing a significant security threat to Europe regardless of how the war ends. If Russia takes over Ukraine, the Kremlin’s expansionist foreign policy is very likely to engulf other neighboring countries.

The two years preceding the Russian invasion of Ukraine suggested that Russia had adopted a measured policy toward the post-Soviet space. Faced with social protests in Belarus, a coup in Kyrgyzstan, the victory of pro-European president Maia Sandu in Moldova, the second war in Nagorno-Karabakh, and riots in Kazakhstan, Russia showed diplomatic ability without any hard arm-twisting of partners. In 2020, then Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitry Trenin even concluded that “there will be no new edition of the empire”.

In January 2022, at the invitation of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty (CSTO)’s troops intervened on Kazakh soil to help quell widespread deadly clashes, an unprecedented phenomenon in the country's recent history. Having de facto kept Tokayev in power, the Kremlin expected to count on Kazakhstan’s unconditional support towards its offensive in Ukraine. However, that was not the case. 

Political instability continues in Central Asia. A series of protests that began on 1 July in Nukus, the capital of Karakalpakstan, an autonomous region of western Uzbekistan, has turned into tragedy. The toll is 18 dead and 243 injured among protesters and law enforcement.

Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine on February 24th called for a reaction, both declarative and factual, from world leaders. China has long manoeuvred itself between not antagonising the West whilst also not officially supporting Russia. This approach results from several diplomatic, business, and strategic considerations, including the potential effect on Asian security and stability.

Scarcely two years after protesters redefined the political landscape in Kyrgyzstan, the country’s giant northern neighbour – Kazakhstan – has witnessed a series of uprisings that started in the Western city of Zhanaozen and soon spread to other Southern cities and, most importantly, the former capital of Almaty.

Over the past year and a half, the political scene in Kazakhstan has quieted down considerably. The mass protests that gripped the country during the 2019 presidential election and afterward are but a memory.

Russia and the CA states enjoy a “natural” long-standing cooperation in fighting irregular threats, considering shared concerns related to terrorism, extremism, separatism, and transnational organized crime, but also shared approaches to counter them. The collapse of the Afghan government and the return of the Taliban – designated as a terrorist organization by Russia – poses exceptional challenges of instability and uncertainty.

The Soviet era brought heavy industrialization of the agriculture sector in Central Asia (CA), aiming at the expansion of cotton (called “white gold”) cultivation but also at an increase in cereals and other staple crops.