On 6 April the US temporarily pulled out its forces from Libya following the offensive on Tripoli launched by the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar, a military operation that has plunged the North African country into a new phase of the civil war.
Following the parliamentary election in May 2018 and after 9 months of negotiations, designated Prime Minister Saad Hariri was able to form a government in Lebanon. Although it appears to be a national unity government, bringing together almost all political factions in the country, the formation process received a lot of criticism, as it was considered a break from custom and was eventually perceived as Hezbollah's government in many Western circles.
Russia’s military intervention in Syria at the end of September 2015 undoubtedly strengthened and sustained the Bashar Al-Assad regime. For the first time since the height of the Cold War Russian military personnel were actively involved in the Middle East as a combatant force with significant political leverage to counterbalance the roles of Saudi Arabia and Turkey in the Syrian conflict and thus the wider Middle East.
After the fall of the Gaddafi regime there was - allegedly - a great opportunity to make Libya a role model for other states in the region. For various reasons this opportunity is gone. There are several indications that Libya is on the way to a lengthy civil war. Some kind of Lebanonization could be the destiny of the country.
As probably everybody is aware an unstable Libya could have a significant negative impact to the region and also to our own countries.
Libya, three years after the end of its uprising against the Gaddafi regime, has reached the nadir of its political fortunes. It is both ironic and painful that for the third time since their independence in 1951 Libyans’ attempt to create a modern, centralized state seems to be slipping from their grasp – this time after a promising start in the wake of the 2011 uprising against its former dictator. The first two failed attempts – in 1951 and 1969 – were essentially local affairs with few reverberations beyond the country’s borders.
It could be easy to be skeptical about the future of the agreement signed in Addis Ababa on May 9 between the South Sudanese president Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, his former deputy-turned-leader of the armed opposition. South Sudan, Africa’s youngest state after obtaining independence from Sudan in 2011, has fallen into a seemingly unstoppable spiral of conflict due to the split of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) into two opposite factions.