Almost a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an increasing number of Italians fear the economic crisis caused by the war and the energy crisis. The growing uncertainty surrounding the end of the conflict overshadowed other issues, like the fear of the pandemic. And yet, below the radar other things are happening. Take the gradual but persistent estrangement between China and the West.
A way to understand China’s foreign policy is by observing its quest for global consensus. Consensus is not only soft power, but it signifies that China is accepted as an international partner. With a rising consensus, China is perceived as place of opportunity, when it is declining China is seen more as a threat. When China is seen as a place of opportunity the barriers to its international economic footprint are lowered, when it is a threat, those barriers are high and economic and political costs arise.
In June 2022, as every summer, UNHCR published its Annual Global Trends report. UNHCR reported that the number of forcibly displaced people in the world had risen to 89 million. It also noted that the number of refugees under its mandate – individuals who received international protection, either as a group or following a positive asylum decision –stood at 21.3 million in December 2021.
The “energy trilemma” is a term often used to describe the challenge of supplying sustainable, secure, and affordable energy. The emphasis in recent years, especially in Europe, has been on the sustainable and affordable attributes. The EU’s Fit for 55 plan promises a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, on the way to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Plummeting costs for renewable electricity have been making those goals a bit easier to achieve.
The European Union needs to be strategic in its engagement with the outside world in 2023. This is particularly true in relations with the United States, China and Russia. That strategic engagement will involve making hard choices — choices that too often hide behind the phrases that show up in European strategy documents, like principled pragmatism, effective multilateralism, cooperative regionalism and strategic autonomy. Europeans have a strong sense of shared values.
2022 was another vintage year for national populism. Contrary to predictions after the Brexit and Trump revolts, in 2016, and then during the Covid-19 pandemic, when analysts forecast that public support for populism would fade as experts returned to the forefront, during the last year we have seen the opposite.
2022 was a tough year for the global economy and economic governance. Just when the global economy was starting to recover from the Covid pandemic, Russia invaded Ukraine and geopolitical frictions intensified. The world is now facing a triple crisis as a result: an energy price crisis, a food crisis, and a financial crisis. This comes on top of the health and climate crises. There are major uncertainties surrounding policy.
On 24 February 2022, the modern world as we used to know it changed. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has created a huge humanitarian crisis, bringing war back to the heart of Europe after several decades of peace and sending shock waves through global energy markets.
2022 was a year of war and inflation. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine was largely unforeseen. A rebound of pent-up demand from the pandemic, supply bottlenecks, and skyrocketing energy prices spiralled inflation to around 10% in advanced countries, an inconceivable level since inflation-targeting monetary regimes were introduced in the early 1990s.
In 2023 we might see positive economic surprises in Europe (absent an escalation of the war): better-than-expected growth and lower-than-expected inflation.
The Russian-Ukrainian war will definitely be one of the key factors in determining political and economic processes in Europe, Eurasia, and globally in 2023.
La globalizzazione è destinata a cambiare in maniera significativa. La geopolitica, la domanda globale e i problemi logistici stanno minando i modelli di commercio internazionale che conosciamo. Quali sono le trasformazioni che impatteranno sul futuro di un mondo che sembrava connesso in maniera irreversibile?
Rivoluzione digitale e riduzione dell’impatto ambientale vanno affrontati in una prospettiva d’insieme. La digitalizzazione delle attività professionali promette una crescita economica a impatto ridotto sull’ambiente. Eppure rimane il dubbio che l’impatto della transizione digitale possa creare contraddizioni concrete sullo sviluppo verde