The German elections are just around the corner. After Angela Merkel’s 16-year-long reign, Germany seems to be heading towards a three-way coalition with the Social Democrats as the senior partner.
Will the new government support a swift, green and digital transition? Between Washington and Beijing, what changes for Berlin’s foreign policy? Will austerity make a comeback in Germany and the EU? And which prospects for German relations with Italy and France?
Mysterious and transparent, cautious but daring, cordial yet ferocious. In a few weeks’ time, Angela Merkel will bow out, leaving behind some unanswered questions about her true personality. She is Germany’s eight Chancellor since the birth of the Bundesrepublik. In the last seventy years, the Bundesliga counted only eight trainers, while the Berlin Philarmonic contented itself with seven directors. For Germans, stability is not an abstract idea, it’s a value to live by.
A key mistake to avoid in thinking about Germany’s future economic policies is to personalize.
The 2017 to 2021 Parliament has not been plain sailing for Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). In late 2018, Angela Merkel announced her intention to step down from the CDU leadership, after disappointing state election results in Bavaria and Hesse.
At the heart of the European project, the Franco-German tandem provides impetus for further integration within the EU. However, Brussels is yet to decide which direction it wants to take, and the French and Germans still have to agree on their position with regards to economics, foreign affairs, or enlargement. The geopolitical context provides a call for action for an EU which endeavours to become increasingly “geopolitical” and aims at “speaking the language of power”. How can the French and Germans cooperate, and which hurdles are they going to face?
“Look, I predict to you, your children or grandchildren are going to be doing their doctoral thesis on the issue of who succeeded: autocracy or democracy? Because that is what is at stake, not just with China.”[1] This is how U.S. President Joe Biden outlined his view of the long-term relationship with China. Those who hoped that the geo-economic rivalry between the U.S. and China might diminish during his presidency will thus be disappointed.
The Germans did not pay much attention to this year’s election campaign until early September. The consequences of the pandemic, July’s devastating floods, and the dramatic collapse of Afghanistan dominated discussions in the media and among the public. But the 26th of September is now just around the corner and the race for the Chancellery has been in full motion in the last weeks.
For 16 years, Angela Merkel has shaped the dynamics of the EU, more so than any other European head of state. This was not only due to Germany’s economic and political leverage, but very much due to her as a person, too. Stoic, pragmatic and with a lot of patience, she was often able to mediate between different claims and interests and to position herself as a central figure when it came to negotiating workable compromises.
On April 16 the Council of the European Union issued its ‘Conclusions on an EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.’ The EU policy paper announced a “meaningful European naval presence in the Indo-Pacific.” However, the meaning of that exact phrase on top of who, what, and when would be deployed to the region have yet to be further explained.
Germany got its way. Well, German business with business interests in China did. The German EU Council Presidency ended with a big bang on December 30, when the EU and China signed their long-awaited bilateral trade and investment agreement, the “Comprehensive Agreement on Investment” (CAI). The agreement had been negotiated since 2014 and its adoption at the very end of last year came as a surprise.
The long era of Angela Merkel's chancellorship will draw to an end in 2021, leaving a series of major question marks, some of which hang over not only Germany's destiny, but also that of Europe. On 26 September, Germans will head back to the polls, but it will be the first time an incumbent chancellor, at the height of her popularity, is not throwing her hat back into the ring. Merkel's exit could very well leave her party, and the country as a whole, in a sort of horror vacui. The election results will also have inevitable repercussions for the balance in Europe.
