A due giorni dal voto arriva l’ufficialità: le elezioni in Libia non si faranno. Erano in pochi a crederci ancora. E l’ombra di un vuoto di potere si allunga minacciosa sul paese.
For Libya, 2021 will end with the betrayed hope of a change of course. The now postponed elections can only be the first step of a bigger transition.
A otto giorni dalle elezioni in Libia regna il caos e le milizie minacciano le istituzioni. Se il voto non è stato ancora ufficialmente rinviato, nessuno crede che si possa svolgere come previsto.
The contest over who gets to decide Libya’s transition has long been fought on two levels, the domestic and international ones. While Libyan politicians and personalities have been known to deftly play international actors to advance their goals, international influence over Libya has swelled to such an extent that foreign states can now choose to keep Libya at peace, or plunge it into war, and are dealing to decide Libyan elections.
Libya’s troubled and halting progress toward planned presidential elections on December 24th has underscored the recurring affliction of armed groups’ linkages to political elites. Throughout the post-2011 period, national-level elections—most notably the 2012 elections for Libya’s national legislature, the General National Congress—have been seen by international actors as mechanisms for producing the necessary political legitimacy and consensus to jump start the dismantling of armed groups and the reform and unification of the security sector.
Libya is situated in the North African region with climatic conditions that are influenced by the Mediterranean Sea in the north and the Sahara Desert in the south; resulting in abrupt weather transitions[1]. Libya is considered the world’s ninth country in terms of oil reserves[2]. Over 90 percent of its source of water originates from fossil groundwater aquifers. In addition, the country doesn’t have any rivers, while the surface run-offs are considered limited due to low rainfall rate.
It is possible to define the modern political history of Libya as a compromise. A compromise that began during the Idris monarchy which decided to come to terms with Western nations, and that continued between the king and the country's tribal realities. During Gaddafi's devastating 42-year regime, the rais leveraged favoritism, corruption, and atavistic hatreds to keep his citizens together, giving nothing in return if not an artificial, hyper-centralized state body for the benefit of a small elite, and one that obviously could not survive him.
Once again, Libya faces an important occasion: the presidential elections scheduled for December 24th. Nonetheless, current events suggest this occasion will most probably be missed. What scenarios lie ahead for Libya's future? Which conditions is the country currently in? What elements are necessary for long-standing stability?
It is an acquired truth that Libya as a country, or better, a single entity did not come into being until 1934. Back then, the regions that composed Libya were assembled by the newly appointed Italian governor Italo Balbo into one whole unit to be administered. This period was cut short by Italy’s defeat in WWII: the country’s “liberation” resulted in its splitting into different areas, each under a European country’s mandate.
When Libya goes to the polls next, a key question will regard the number of youth that turn up to vote. Over a decade after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, the country’s chaos and dysfunction has resulted in interrupted lives, dashed hopes, and diminished prospects for the generation that has come of age in the post-Gaddafi period. More than half of Libya’s population is under 30 years of age. It’s a youth bulge that presents both challenges and opportunities. It’s also a demographic few Libyan political leaders have seriously engaged with up to now.
Presentata oggi a Tripoli la lista delle candidature per le presidenziali. Ma sulle future elezioni gravano ancora dubbi e divisioni.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we focus on the Paris Conference on Libya, where representatives of national governments and international institutions with vested interests in the country gathered in support of the implementation of Libya’s transitional process.