Lebanon is perpetually at a crossroads, one where local, regional, and international interests seem to play against each other—all the more so today with the war in Ukraine. Now, tiny Lebanon, all too familiar with the ripple effects of global conflicts, has been almost completely cut off from its staple food— wheat — which was almost entirely supplied by Russia and Ukraine before the conflict.
The conflict in Ukraine weighs today on world food security, due to the significant role that Russia and Ukraine play in international agricultural markets. Today, a third of the world's wheat export,
80% of sunflower oil exports, and 19% of corn exports are disrupted by the paralysis of production and transport in the Black Sea basin.
The Russo-Ukrainian war has affected global food trade and Gulf countries have taken note. The Middle East is the largest grain importing region of the world and self-sufficiency is not an option for lack of water, especially in the arid Gulf region, but also in more fertile Northern neighboring countries such as Syria and Turkey. The memories of the global food crisis of 2007-2008 have not been forgotten, when agricultural exporting nations such as Argentina, Russia, and Vietnam declared trade restrictions fearing for their own food security.
Israel is experiencing one of its deadliest wave of violence in years. On April 7th, an attack in central Tel Aviv claimed the lives of three people and wounded some ten others. The shooting was the latest in a series of lethal aggressions across Israel, carried out since March 22nd by both Arab citizens of Israel and Palestinians from the West Bank.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we turn the spotlight on Tunisia, where the ongoing political crisis has intensified after President Kais Saied dissolved the Parliament, which had been frozen since July. This move has further plunged the country into political turmoil and stoked fears of a nascent autocracy.
After a decade of cold US-Saudi relations, the shock provoked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine provides pragmatic incentives to reorient the US-Saudi-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) alliance.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region's most significant issues and trends. Today we turn the spotlight on the challenges the United States is facing to shore up ties with unsatisfied allies in the Middle East and North Africa and tackle today's energy crisis.
Turkey has significantly recalibrated its foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa. After having played a proactive role in the region, for over a year Ankara has gradually softened its assertive foreign policy, as it has grown increasingly aware of the need to defuse tensions, break out of its regional isolation, and mend fences with regional competitors due to international, regional, and domestic shifts.
The implications of the recent normalisation process between the UAE and Turkey will not be limited to the future regional balance of power. Over the last decade the two countries had expanded the competition arena beyond the traditional Middle East borders. Following the so-called Arab Spring, the two countries have exploited regional crisis and states' endemic fragility to boost their strategic positions. Accordingly, Turkey and UAE shifted competitive dynamics to third-party contexts.
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's visit to the UAE, his first trip to an Arab country in over a decade.
Turkey’s newfound willingness to engage states it long antagonised, most notably Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Israel, holds the potential to lead to a reshuffling of international relations in the Middle East. Across the region, these developments could herald a further weakening of Sunni Islamist organisations such as the Muslim Brotherhood and its many offshoots, and could also buttress the anti-Iran partnership linking the Gulf states to Israel.
Turkey has launched a normalisation initiative with several countries with which it has had problematic relations for the last decade. Egypt has been one of them. The relations between the two countries had hit rock bottom after the toppling of then-President Mohammed Morsi by a coup in 2013. Turkey immediately became one of the staunchest critics of the coup and new President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi's policies against the Muslim Brotherhood and its leaders.