North Africa

Before the Covid-19 pandemic absorbed all public attention, the negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) hit the headlines of global and local media - especially since the US government got involved as facilitator in the process – as one of the most pressing diplomatic and political dispute in the African continent. In 2011, the Ethiopian government began construction on the $4 billion Nile River dam, near the border with Sudan.

North Africa and Europe are bound together by history, geography and society. Over the last decade, shakeups around the Mediterranean Sea basin have caused deep transformations in both regions. The European Union was forced to redefine its relations both with North Africa as a region, and with each of the countries that comprise it.

The influence of international players has been a constant feature of North Africa’s history. Looking at the nature and scope of this phenomenon is crucial to understand the current geopolitical landscape of the region. The diplomatic historian Carl Brown once famously described the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as being “the most penetrated international relations sub-system in today’s world”[1], stressing the recurrent interventions by foreign powers in the political, economic and security realms of many regional states.

Over the last few years, the myth of a Russian “return” to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has captured increasing attention from policy-makers all over the area and beyond, as well as the academic community. This widespread narrative originated, in particular, in the Syrian crisis and the Russian military intervention in the country. After a prolonged period of disengagement from the MENA region, the Syrian crisis provided the Kremlin with a front door to return to a region that has always been of geostrategic relevance to its foreign projection.

The war in Yemen has enhanced transnational insecurity between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, with the Gulf of Aden as the epicentre of this insecurity: nevertheless, Yemen and Somalia still maintain distinct features.

Algeria is one of the most important African producers and exporters of oil and natural gas. Discovered during the final part of the colonial era (1956), hydrocarbon resources were soon exploited by French energy companies (1958) and subsequently by the Algerian national oil company Sonatrach (1963), providing the necessary economic resources fora development strategy based on import substitution.

After the 1969 revolution, Libya’s previously close links to the United States quickly deteriorated. At the same time Muammar al-Gaddafi sought closer links to the Soviet Union. The clear majority of the equipment of the “Armed Forces of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya” originated from the Soviets or the Eastern Bloc. Many of the officers of all services were educated at military training facilities of the Soviet Armed Forces. After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia remained as one of Libya’s key allies.

Six years on from its February 2011 revolution, Libya’s political scene is characterized by fragmentation and polarization. The constantly shifting political and military allegiances and contested legitimacy since 2014 have today resulted in three Libyan ‘‘governments’’ claiming legitimacy.