Sudan

The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on the Nile, where the dispute between Ethiopia and downstream countries over Addis Ababa’s plan to further fill his "Renaissance" dam is increasingly pressuring Arab states to mediate among quarrelling stakeholders.

L’Etiopia per ora non cede e intende procedere alla seconda fase del riempimento della diga GERD sul Nilo. Le operazioni sono previste per luglio, una mossa portata avanti nonostante le proteste del Cairo e di Khartum. Le due capitali temono che la riduzione del flusso d’acqua abbia conseguenze disastrose sul piano economico, sociale e demografico. Già sono in sofferenza e un calo delle forniture potrebbe essere fatale, infatti parlano di una minaccia alla sicurezza nazionale.

War always triggers a series of intended and unintended consequences. In the case of the current guerrilla war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the conflict has seemingly sparked tensions between Ethiopia and its formerly convivial neighbour, Sudan.

A livello globale, il Sudan è uno tra i paesi più vulnerabili ai cambiamenti climatici, con una forte esposizione alle calamità naturali – desertificazione, siccità e cicliche inondazioni – che contribuiscono a indebolire la situazione socio-economica delle comunità.

Malgrado la costante ricorrenza di questi fenomeni, ad oggi il paese non si è ancora dotato di un meccanismo di coordinamento a livello nazionale basato su un piano di preparazione, prevenzione e mitigazione dei rischi dei disastri ambientali.

Il Comprehensive peace agreement siglato il 31 agosto a Juba dal governo di Khartoum e dai rappresentanti dei gruppi armati attivi in Darfur, South Kordofan e Blue Nile – il Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF), coalizione di gruppi ribelli nelle due aree meridionali e in Darfur, e la fazione del Sudan Liberation Movement guidata da Arko Minni Minnawi (SLM-MM) – promette di rappresentare una svolta storica per il Sudan.

The 2019 Sudanese revolution has offered a genuine possibility of stability and peace for the first time in decades. This is, however, highly fragile due to an ongoing and increasingly severe economic crisis, protracted displacement, political threats to the transitional government, and now Covid-19.   

This article analyzes the evolution of protest participation in Sudan from 2011 to 2018 using the data provided by the Arab Barometer Surveys. It finds that participation evolved substantially in both size and demographic determinants, reflecting the strong deterioration of the population’s socio-economic conditions over the last decade. The Arab Barometer surveys are the only cross-country source of data available for Arab countries. They were collected over five different waves in the last two decades.

One year has passed since the ousting of former President Omar al-Bashir by a military coup ensuing from several months of nationwide protests. Raising from the ashes of a thirty-year authoritarian regime, Sudan’s new transitional government appointed in September has taken its first steps on the uncharted path to democracy, achieving encouraging success while shedding light on the magnitude of the challenges ahead.

“The people of Sudan have suffered immensely, and this revolution will not be complete unless we recognise the immense grievances of those who have been systematically targeted by those who were responsible for their protection”. The peace process with the Sudanese armed movements is the “main priority” for the transitional government, according to Abdalla Hamdok’s recent words, filled with strong symbolic and political meaning.

One year after the military coup that unseated former President Omar al-Bashir, Sudan ranks among the lowest positions in the Human Development Index list (HDI).

Only a few short months following the one year anniversary of the Sudanese revolution, Khartoum is facing a global pandemic and a deteriorating economic situation. Over the last decade, Sudanese people have been suffering from inflation and gas shortages  as a result of losing 75 percent of its oil revenue that was assumed by South Sudan after the separation of the two states.

One year ago, the mass mobilization of Sudanese civil society led to Omar al-Bashir’s removal from office, marking the end of one of the longest-ruling regimes in Africa. The aftermath of the revolution saw the unfolding of a social, political and economic crisis with a growing risk of violent destabilization. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing priorities of external actors are adding further uncertainty to the country's future.