transatlantic relations

Like every other aspect of American life, the 2020 election campaigns for the presidency and Congress have been completely upended by the emergence of the novel coronavirus. Less than a month ago, Donald Trump’s re-election prospects looked as bright as they had at any point in his presidency. The stock market was at an all-time high, unemployment was at an historic low, and the United States had just reached an agreement with the Taliban to end its long-running involvement in Afghanistan.

The escalating trade war between the United States and China will be one of the hot issues during the Buenos Aires G20 meeting. This trade conflict, probably the most important since the second world war, started last January with the US introducing safeguard tariffs on imports from the world of solar panels and tariff rate-quotas on imports from the world of washing machines. These tariffs have been introduced in response to requests by US manufacturers.

In the contemporary history of US-Russia relations, practically every presidential meeting runs the risk of being pinned to a reference point in Cold War history. The coming summit between Presidents Putin and Trump - their third personal encounter but first as a separate meeting - is no exception. Some in Russia liken the importance of this summit to the face-to-face meetings between Nikita Khrushchev and Dwight Eisenhower during the first official visit by the Soviet leader to the US in September 1959.

Looking at political debates and perceived priorities, it seems that the coming NATO Summit will focus on the Eastern flank.

At the same time, the 11-12 July Summit will give the operative kick-start to the NATO Strategic Direction South (NSD-S) Hub, based in Naples and opened in September 2017.

This year’s G7 may mark a new milestone on the declining path of multilateralism. Despite all efforts by Mr. Trudeau, a strong supporter of multilateralism, the Canadian G7 Summit will likely achieve a very mild and short-sighted Final Declaration, if any. Just a few days before the Summit, President Trump announced his decision to let tariff exemptions expire, de facto imposing tariffs on all the other six G7 members.

In 2018 global governance will be importantly shaped by the summits of the two global institutions centrally responsible for this task. The first is that of the Group of Seven (G7) major economically advanced democracies, to be hosted by Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau in Charlevoix, Canada, on June 8-9. The second is that of the Group of Twenty (G20) systemically significant countries, to be hosted by Argentinian president Mauricio Macri in Buenos Aires on November 30 and December 1.